Last major update issued on November 7, 2003 at 05:20 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2003 (last update October 15, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update November 5, 2003)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on November 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 440 and 592 km/sec. A fairly weak solar wind shock (related to the arrival of the flank part of the CME observed after the X28 flare on November 4) was observed at SOHO at 18:56 UTC with a sudden increase in wind speed from 473 to 544 km/sec.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 97.8. The planetary A
index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 15.4).
Three hour interval K indices: 22223354 (planetary), 33112253 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was very low.
Region 10495 decayed slowly and lost its trailing spot. The region will rotate out of view at the southwest limb today and could leave the visible disk spotless.
November 6: A large full halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 images beginning at 17:42 UTC. The source of this CME was likely 5-6 days behind the southeast limb. This source was probably the same as the one which produced another backsided large full halo CME on November 4.
November 5: No partially or fully Earth directed CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A small and poorly defined coronal hole (CH65) in the northern hemisphere with a trans equatorial extension may have been in a geoeffective position on November 5-6. A well defined recurrent coronal hole (CH66) will likely reach a geoeffective position on November 9-11.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 7. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 7. A few unsettled to active intervals are possible on November 8-9 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH65 while unsettled to major storm conditions are likely on November 12-14 under the influence of a high speed stream from coronal hole CH66.
Long distance low frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is very poor. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station: none observed. A few stations from Newfoundland were noted on other frequencies].
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.
|Solar region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
classification was HSX
at midnight, area 0070
|Total spot count:||2||1|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2003.05||115.7||55.2||(66.8 predicted, -3.5)|
|2003.06||129.3||77.4||(63.0 predicted, -3.8)|
|2003.07||127.7||85.0||(59.3 predicted, -3.7)|
|2003.08||122.1||72.7||(56.3 predicted, -3.0)|
|2003.09||112.2||48.8||(54.3 predicted, -2.0)|
|2003.10||151.7||65.6||(51.6 predicted, -2.7)|
|2003.11||158.0 (1)||21.7 (2)||(48.9 predicted, -2.7)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.