Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on November 9, 2003 at 02:55 UTC. Minor update posted at 15:14 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2003 (last update October 15, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update November 5, 2003)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 408 and 502 km/sec. A fairly weak high speed stream from coronal hole CH65 arrived at about 13h UTC. While the interplanetary magnetic field has at times been moderately southwards, only a mild response has been observed on the geomagnetic field.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 92.7. The planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.6).
Three hour interval K indices: 11133333 (planetary), 11032322 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.

At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was very low.

New region 10498 emerged early in the day in the southwest quadrant near the equator.
New region 10499 emerged in the southwest quadrant.

Spotted region not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S300] This region emerged in the southwest quadrant near the central meridian on November 8. Location at midnight: S07W09.

Comment added at 15:14 UTC on November 9: The high speed stream from coronal hole CH65 has intensified and the geomagnetic disturbance has increased in intensity with major storm recorded during the 12-15h UTC interval.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 8: No LASCO or other SOHO images available.

November 7: A full halo CME was observed beginning in LASCO C3 images at 16:18 UTC. The distribution of the ejected material suggests that the source of this CME was old region 10486 behind the southwest limb.

November 6: A large full halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 images beginning at 17:42 UTC. The source of this CME was likely 5-6 days behind the southeast limb. This source was probably the same as the one which produced another backsided large full halo CME on November 4, probably old region 10484.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A small and poorly defined coronal hole (CH65) in the northern hemisphere with a trans equatorial extension was in a geoeffective position on November 5-6. A well defined recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH66) will reach a geoeffective position on November 9-13.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 07:06 UTC on November 9. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.


The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 9-11, possibly with a few active intervals on November 9 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH65. Unsettled to major storm conditions are likely on November 12-16 under the influence of a high speed stream from coronal hole CH66.

Long distance low frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is poor. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station: Radio Vibración (Venezuela) with a weak signal. Radio Satelite (Venezuela) noted on 1429.93 kHz].

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
Coronal hole indicator CME indicator M and X class flare indicator

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.

Solar region Date numbered SEC
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10498 2003.11.08 4 5 S03W26 0020 DRO  
10499 2003.11.08 5 3 S17W19 0030 DSO classification was DAO
at midnight, area 0060
S294 emerged on
    S09W85     plage
S296 emerged on
    S07W65     plage
S297 emerged on
    N12W58     plage
S298 emerged on
    N13W64     plage
S299 emerged on
    S22W84     plage
S300 emerged on
  4 S07W09 0030 CRO  
Total spot count: 9 12
SSN: 29 42

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2002.10 167.0 97.5 90.5 (-4.1)
2002.11 168.7 95.5 85.2 (-5.3)
2002.12 157.2 80.8 82.0 (-3.2)
2003.01 144.0 79.7 80.9 (-1.1)
2003.02 124.5 46.0 78.5 (-2.4)
2003.03 131.4 61.1 74.1 (-4.4)
2003.04 126.4 60.0 70.3 (-3.8)
2003.05 115.7 55.2 (66.8 predicted, -3.5)
2003.06 129.3 77.4 (63.0 predicted, -3.8)
2003.07 127.7 85.0 (59.3 predicted, -3.7)
2003.08 122.1 72.7 (56.3 predicted, -3.0)
2003.09 112.2 48.8 (54.3 predicted, -2.0)
2003.10 151.7 65.6 (51.6 predicted, -2.7)
2003.11 141.5 (1) 23.0 (2) (48.9 predicted, -2.7)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

[DX-Listeners' Club]