Last major update issued on November 10, 2003 at 04:20 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2003 (last update October 15, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update November 5, 2003)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm on November 9. Solar wind speed ranged between 466 and 602 km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from coronal hole CH65.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 93.0. The planetary A
index was 25 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 26.5).
Three hour interval K indices: 23446443 (planetary), 33446443 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was very low.
Region 10498 developed slowly. A magnetic delta structure could be forming in the northern part of the region.
Region 10499 was mostly quiet and unchanged.
New region 10500 emerged in the southwest quadrant on November 8 and was numbered by SEC the next day. The region developed slowly on Nov.9.
November 9: A fast full halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 images beginning at 06:42 UTC. Material distribution indicates that old region 10484, a few days behind the southeast limb, was the source.
November 8: No CMEs observed during the first half of the day.
November 7: A full halo CME was observed beginning in LASCO C3 images at 16:18 UTC. The distribution of the ejected material suggests that the source of this CME was old region 10486 behind the southwest limb.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A well defined recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH66) will reach a geoeffective position on November 9-15.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 9. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on November 10 and early on November 11. Unsettled to major storm conditions are likely from the latter half of November 11 until November 18 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH66, isolated severe storm conditions could occur on Nov.12 and 13.
Long distance low frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is very poor. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station: none, only a weak, unidentified signal noted, I assume this was Radio Cristal del Uruguay].
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.
|Solar region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
classification was DAO
at midnight, area 0100
area was 0080
formerly region S300
classification was DAO
at midnight, area 0050
|Total spot count:||17||21|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2003.05||115.7||55.2||(66.8 predicted, -3.5)|
|2003.06||129.3||77.4||(63.0 predicted, -3.8)|
|2003.07||127.7||85.0||(59.3 predicted, -3.7)|
|2003.08||122.1||72.7||(56.3 predicted, -3.0)|
|2003.09||112.2||48.8||(54.3 predicted, -2.0)|
|2003.10||151.7||65.6||(51.6 predicted, -2.7)|
|2003.11||136.1 (1)||24.6 (2)||(48.9 predicted, -2.7)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.