Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on November 12, 2003 at 04:00 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2003 (last update October 15, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update November 12, 2003)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was active to major storm on November 11. Solar wind speed ranged between 596 and 776 km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from coronal hole CH66.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 95.6. The planetary A index was 51 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 54.6).
Three hour interval K indices: 56565554 (planetary), 47554554 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.

At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was moderate. A total of 1 C and 1 M class events were recorded during the day. Old region 10484 a day or two behind the central east limb was the likely source of a long duration C8.5 event peaking at 16:15 UTC.

Region 10498 developed early in the day, then decayed slightly after the M flare. The magnetic delta structure present one day ago disappeared after that flare as well. Flare: M1.6 long duration event peaking at 13:51 UTC. A moderate type II radio sweep was associated with this event.
Region 10499 decayed slowly and quietly. The region could become spotless today.
Region 10500 decayed and will likely become spotless early today.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 11: A full halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 images beginning at 02:42 UTC. The distribution of the ejected material indicates that the source was region 10486 several days behind the southwest limb.
Another full halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 images beginning at 15:18 UTC. The source of this CME was likely the M1.6 flare in region 10498. The CME could reach the Earth on November 14. In the presence of a high speed stream the CME is not likely to cause any significant disturbance.

November 10: No partly or fully earth directed CMEs observed.

November 9: A fast full halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 images beginning at 06:42 UTC. Material distribution indicates that old region 10484, behind the east limb, was the source.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A well defined recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH66) will be in a geoeffective position on November 9-14.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 12. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.


The geomagnetic field is expected to be active to minor storm on November 12 and unsettled to minor storm on November 13-17 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH66.

Long distance low frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor to useless. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is poor to fair. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay. Quite a few stations from Brazil were noted on other frequencies, i.e. Rádio Record on 1000 kHz had a pretty good signal].

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
Coronal hole indicator CME indicator M and X class flare indicator

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.

Solar region Date numbered SEC
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10498 2003.11.08 5 7 S04W67 0220 DAO  
10499 2003.11.08 3 3 S18W62 0030 CRO classification was DRO
at midnight
10500 2003.11.09 5 1 S09W50 0030 CRO classification was AXX
at midnight, area 0010
Total spot count: 13 11
SSN: 43 41

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2002.10 167.0 97.5 90.5 (-4.1)
2002.11 168.7 95.5 85.2 (-5.3)
2002.12 157.2 80.8 82.0 (-3.2)
2003.01 144.0 79.7 80.9 (-1.1)
2003.02 124.5 46.0 78.5 (-2.4)
2003.03 131.4 61.1 74.1 (-4.4)
2003.04 126.4 60.0 70.3 (-3.8)
2003.05 115.7 55.2 (66.8 predicted, -3.5)
2003.06 129.3 77.4 (63.0 predicted, -3.8)
2003.07 127.7 85.0 (59.3 predicted, -3.7)
2003.08 122.1 72.7 (56.3 predicted, -3.0)
2003.09 112.2 48.8 (54.3 predicted, -2.0)
2003.10 151.7 65.6 (51.6 predicted, -2.7)
2003.11 128.6 (1) 27.6 (2) (48.9 predicted, -2.7)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

[DX-Listeners' Club]