Last major update issued on November 29, 2003 at 05:15 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2003 (last update October 15, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update November 22, 2003)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 369 and 439 km/sec, slowly decreasing all day.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 167.7. The planetary A
index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.3).
Three hour interval K indices: 22133322 (planetary), 21122222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.
At midnight there were 8 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was low. A total of 8 C class events were recorded during the day. A C1.6 flare at 23:06 UTC had a source at or just behind the southeast limb.
Region 10507 decayed slowly and was quiet. An isolated M class flare is possible as there is still a magnetic delta structure in the
northern part of the largest penumbra. Flare: C1.0 at 05:55 UTC.
Region 10508 decayed in the easternmost part. Slow development was observed in the west due to an emerging area of negative polarity flux. Flares: C1.7 at 01:59, C1.2 at 07:24 and C3.6 at 09:13 UTC.
Region 10509 decayed slowly and lost the small trailing spots. Flare: C1.1 at 15:26 UTC.
Region 10510 decayed in the southernmost spot section and was mostly quiet. Flares: C1.2 at 16:42 and C1.1 at 18:25 UTC.
Region 10511 decayed fairly quickly. Early on November 29 all trailing spots have disappeared.
Region 10513 was quiet and stable.
New region 10515 rotated into view at the southeast limb late on November 27 and was numbered the next day by SEC. The region developed slowly during the day.
New region 10516 rotated into view at the southeast limb on November 27 with SEC numbering the region the next day.
November 26-28: No partly or fully earth directed CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH70) will be in a geoeffective position on December 1-2.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:05 UTC on November 29. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 28 - December 3. On December 4-5 unsettled to major storm conditions are likely due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH70.
Long distance low frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is poor. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: Radio Vibración (Venezuela). WWZN Boston on 1510 and WDHP on 1620 kHz were heard with fairly good signals].
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
classification was DKC
classification was HAX
classification was CSO
Note that the area of
300 millionths was a
typo at (contributing
Strange that no one
at SEC spotted the
formerly region S316
classification was DSO
formerly region S315
classification was CSO
|Total spot count:||85||96|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2003.05||115.7||55.2||(66.8 predicted, -3.5)|
|2003.06||129.3||77.4||(63.0 predicted, -3.8)|
|2003.07||127.7||85.0||(59.3 predicted, -3.7)|
|2003.08||122.1||72.7||(56.3 predicted, -3.0)|
|2003.09||112.2||48.8||(54.3 predicted, -2.0)|
|2003.10||151.7||65.6||(51.6 predicted, -2.7)|
|2003.11||139.5 (1)||91.2 (2)||(48.9 predicted, -2.7)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.