Last major update issued on August 6, 2004 at 04:35 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update August 2, 2004)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update August 2, 2004)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update August 2, 2004)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update April 28, 2004)]
[Archived reports (last update August 1, 2004)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on August 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 275 and 365 km/sec.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 88.9. The planetary A
index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.0).
Three hour interval K indices: 11022233 (planetary), 02112222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10655 developed with a significant increase in penumbral area in the trailing and intermediate spot sections.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S442] This region rotated partly into view at the southeast limb on August 5. The region is fairly bright and could produce C flares.
August 3-5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs detected in LASCO images.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A small coronal hole (CH107) in the northern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on August 3.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on August 6. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on August 6-7 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH107. Quiet to unsettled is likely on August 8-9.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is poor to fair. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: none, Radio Vibración (Venezuela), Radio Cristal del Uruguay and CPN Radio (Perú) were all heard. On other frequencies, quite a few stations from Brail could be heard with good signals (1040, 1100, 1130, 1350 (Rádio Cristal), 1360 (Rádio Bandeirantes) kHz. From North America the best signals were heard on 1510 (WWZN), 1540 (WPTR) and 1660 (WWRU) kHz.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
classification was FAI,
area 0250 at midnight
|Total spot count:||26||37|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2004.02||107.0||45.8||(49.1 predicted, -2.9)|
|2004.03||112.0||49.1||(46.5 predicted, -2.6)|
|2004.04||101.2||39.3||(44.3 predicted, -2.2)|
|2004.05||99.8||41.5||(41.0 predicted, -3.3)|
|2004.06||97.4||43.2||(38.2 predicted, -2.8)|
|2004.07||119.1||51.0||(36.3 predicted, -1.9)|
|2004.08||86.0 (1)||7.4 (2)||(34.9 predicted, -1.4)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.