Last major update issued on August 29, 2004 at 04:55 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update August 2, 2004)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update August 2, 2004)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update August 2, 2004)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update August 28, 2004)]
[Archived reports (last update August 25, 2004)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on August 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 366 and 461 km/sec. A brief increase in geomagnetic activity was observed 08-10h UTC.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 87.2. The planetary A
index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.9).
Three hour interval K indices: 23433332 (planetary), 23432322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A6 level.
At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10663 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10664 decayed slowly and will rotate out of view at the southwest limb today.
A new spotted region emerged in the southeast quadrant during the day, however, the region decayed quickly and was spotless by midnight.
August 26-28: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A poorly defined coronal hole (CH111) in the northern hemisphere could rotate into a geoeffective position on August 27-29.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 13:06 UTC on August 28. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on August 29. A weak coronal hole related disturbance could reach Earth on August 30-31 and cause unsettled to active conditions.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to good. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: Radio Vibración (Venezuela) and WLAM Lewiston ME. On other frequencies propagation favored signals from North America. Signal levels below 1100 kHz were lower than yesterday and somewhat higher above that frequency. The highlights of the day were WBAE Portland ME on 1490 and WKXW Atlantic City NJ on 1450 kHz.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
area was 0050
classification was HAX
at midnight, area 0050
|Total spot count:||8||4|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2004.02||107.0||45.8||(49.1 predicted, -2.9)|
|2004.03||112.0||49.1||(46.5 predicted, -2.6)|
|2004.04||101.2||39.3||(44.3 predicted, -2.2)|
|2004.05||99.8||41.5||(41.0 predicted, -3.3)|
|2004.06||97.4||43.2||(38.2 predicted, -2.8)|
|2004.07||119.1||51.0||(36.3 predicted, -1.9)|
|2004.08||111.9 (1)||67.1 (2)||(34.9 predicted, -1.4)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.