Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on June 27, 2004 at 03:30 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2004)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2004)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2004)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update April 28, 2004)]
[Archived reports (last update June 21, 2004)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 26. Solar wind speed ranged between 307 and 423 km/sec. A weak disturbance arrived at Earth near 09h UTC.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 98.9. The planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.5).
Three hour interval K indices: 11013333 (planetary), 11123423 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.

At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 2 C class events was recorded during the day. A C1.3 flare at 04:24 UTC had its origin at or behind the southeast limb.

Region 10635 rotated partly out of view at the southwest limb. Flare: C8.6 at 07:18 UTC.
Region 10637 lost some small spots, however, rudimentary penumbra developed on a few other spots.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

June 24-26: Very few LASCO images available. A weak CME may have been associated with a C1 event in region 10635 on June 24.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH103) was in a geoeffective position on June 26-27.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 13:05 UTC on June 15. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 27 becoming quiet to active on June 28-30 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH103.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
Coronal hole indicator CME indicator M and X class flare indicator

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is fair to good. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay and Radio Vibración (Venezuela). After local sunrise propagation favored Brazil, Uruguay and the Buenos Aires area of Argentina. Brazilians were noted on a number of frequencies below 1000 kHz: 560, 580, 600 (Rádio Itatiaia), 620, 740 (Rádio Sociedade), 760 (Rádio Uirapurú), 840, 860, 880, 890 kHz. Radio Carve (Uruguay) on 850 kHz had the best signal I've ever noted them with. 1510 WWZN Boston was again the strongest station from North America, only a few stations from Newfoundland and Nova Scotia were heard otherwise.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10635 2004.06.14 10 2 S11W80 0360 FKI beta-gamma
classification was DAO
at midnight, area 0200
10636 2004.06.20 1   S09W49 0000 AXX spotless
10637 2004.06.21 11 5 N09W03 0020 BXO classification was DRO
at midnight
10638 2004.06.26 2   N07E22 0010 AXX formerly region S424
spotless
S420 2004.06.19     S16W73     plage
S422 2004.06.20     S10W60     plage
Total spot count: 24 7
SSN: 64 27

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2003.05 115.7 55.2 67.6 (-2.5)
2003.06 129.3 77.4 65.0 (-2.6)
2003.07 127.7 83.3 61.8 (-3.2)
2003.08 122.1 72.7 60.0 (-1.8)
2003.09 112.2 48.7 59.5 (-0.5)
2003.10 151.7 65.5 58.1 (-1.4)
2003.11 140.8 67.3 56.7 (-1.4)
2003.12 114.9 46.5 (54.4 predicted, -2.3)
2004.01 114.1 37.2 (50.5 predicted, -3.9)
2004.02 107.0 46.0 (46.2 predicted, -4.3)
2004.03 112.0 48.9 (43.5 predicted, -2.7)
2004.04 101.2 39.3 (41.4 predicted, -2.1)
2004.05 99.8 41.5 (38.2 predicted, -3.2)
2004.06 98.8 (1) 70.8 (2) (35.3 predicted, -2.9)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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