Last major update issued on May 8, 2004 at 02:55 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on May 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 447 and 564 km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from coronal hole CH94.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 85.2. The planetary A
index was 17 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 17.4).
Three hour interval K indices: 34423432 (planetary), 44423423 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A6 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A single C class event was recorded during the day.
Region 10605 decayed further and lost all spots outside of the single penumbra. Flare:
C1.0 at 14:03 UTC. This event may have been associated with a faint CME.
New region 10606 rotated into view at the southeast limb. There is not much separating the opposite polarity fields and the region could produce C flares.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S400] This region emerged in the southeast quadrant on May 7. Location at midnight: S11E26.
May 5-6: No fully or partly Earth directed CME observed.
May 7: A faint halo CME was observed in LASCO images after 15h UTC. This CME may have been associated with a C1 event in region 10605.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH94) was in a geoeffective position on May 1-4. A coronal hole in the northeast quadrant is probably located too far to the north to become geoeffective.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:05 UTC on May 7. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on May 8 and mostly quiet on May 9. A weak CME could arrive during the latter half of May 10 and cause a slight increase in geomagnetic activity.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is fair. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: From 23:30 UTC and for about one hour several stations from Brazil were observed with Rádio Papacaça having the best signal, then Radio Cristal del Uruguay dominated for nearly one hour. After 01:30 UTC Radio Vibración has been the best, however, CPN Radio (Perú) is slowly getting stronger].
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
became spotless late
in the day
classification was HAX
|Total spot count:||4||7|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2003.11||140.8||67.3||(56.5 predicted, -1.6)|
|2003.12||114.9||46.5||(53.5 predicted, -3.0)|
|2004.01||114.1||37.2||(49.1 predicted, -4.4)|
|2004.02||107.0||46.0||(44.8 predicted, -4.3)|
|2004.03||112.0||48.9||(42.1 predicted, -2.7)|
|2004.04||101.2||39.3||(40.0 predicted, -2.1)|
|2004.05||90.1 (1)||10.6 (2)||(36.8 predicted, -3.2)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.