Last major update issued on November 14, 2004 at 04:10 UTC.
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[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 4, 2004)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 4, 2004)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 4, 2004)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update November 8, 2004)]
[Archived reports (last update November 12, 2004)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 450 and 538 km/sec. A high speed stream from coronal hole CH126 arrived late in the day and has caused unsettled to active conditions early on November 14.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 96.4. The planetary A
index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.5).
Three hour interval K indices: 22422211 (planetary), 45454323 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight there were 6 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events was recorded during the day.Region 10699 decayed slightly and could become spotless today.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S474] This region emerged quickly just east northeast of region 10700 on November 12. Further growth could cause the two regions to merge. C flares are possible. Location at midnight: N06W25.
[S475] A new region emerged fairly quickly east northeast of region 10701 on November 12 and developed slowly on November 13. Location at midnight: S13E19.
[S476] A new region emerged in the northwest quadrant on November 13. Location at midnight: N08W68.
November 11-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
Recurrent coronal hole CH127 in the northern hemisphere will likely rotate into a geoeffective position on November 16-17.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 14. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 14 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH126 and quiet to unsettled on November 15-16.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is useless. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is very poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: none, nothing heard. The only identified trans Atlantic station was Rádio Sociedade on 740 kHz. A few other frequencies had stations with very weak signals.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
classification was HRX
at midnight, area 0010
SEC has failed to
separate region 10699
and region S475
classification was CAO
at midnight, area 0050
SEC has failed to
separate region 10700
and region S474
area was 0080
|Total spot count:||20||36|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2004.05||99.8||41.5||(42.8 predicted, -2.7)|
|2004.06||97.4||43.2||(40.0 predicted, -2.8)|
|2004.07||119.1||51.0||(38.2 predicted, -1.8)|
|2004.08||109.6||40.9||(36.6 predicted, -1.6)|
|2004.09||103.1||27.7||(34.7 predicted, -1.9)|
|2004.10||105.9||48.4||(32.5 predicted, -2.2)|
|2004.11||121.9 (1)||40.0 (2)||(31.0 predicted, -1.5)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.