Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on December 9, 2005 at 05:15 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update December 6, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update December 6, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update December 6, 2005)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update December 3, 2005)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was inactive to very quiet on December 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 295 and 332 (all day average 322) km/sec.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 89.6. The planetary A index was 1 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 1.0)
Three hour interval K indices: 00000111 (planetary), 00010111 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.

At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 2 C class events were recorded during the day, C1.7 at 19:02 and C1.1 at 21:41 UTC, both from a region just behind the northeast limb.

Region 10826 rotated partly out of view at the southwest limb.
Region 10830 was quiet and stable.
New region 10832 emerged in the southwest quadrant. This region was last observed with spots on December 2 but was not numbered by NOAA/SEC then.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

December 6-8: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were observed in incomplete imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 13:06 UTC on December 2. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on December 9-11.

Coronal holes (1)	Coronal mass ejections (2)	M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: WWNN Pompano Beach FL and Radio Vibración. Similar to the previous days propagation was poorer than expected. More northerly paths could be opening as Greenland on 650 kHz was stronger than it usually is.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.