Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on February 8, 2005 at 04:40 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2005)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update February 1, 2005)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on February 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 355 and 823 km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from CH144.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 103.1. The planetary A index was 23 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 25.4).
Three hour interval K indices: 33235455 (planetary), 33225555 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.

At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 4 C class events was recorded during the day.

Region 10730 developed a trailing spot early in the day. This spot was gone by midnight, however, there was some development in the leading penumbra as well.
Region 10732 displayed no significant development and has a small chance of producing a minor M class flare.
New region 10733 rotated into view at the southeast limb. This region is fairly complex with all spots, both positive and negative polarities, in a single penumbra. A minor M class flare is possible. Flares: C1.8 at 09:51, C1.1 at 17:04, C1.8 at 17:30 and C3.7 at 22:44 UTC.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

February 5-7: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A large recurrent coronal hole (CH144) in the northern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on February 4-6.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on February 8. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to major storm on February 8 and quiet to active on February 9 due to a high speed stream from CH144. Quiet to unsettled is likely on February 10.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
Coronal hole indicator CME indicator M and X class flare indicator

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is poor to fair. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: An unidentified station from Brazil. On other frequencies the only stations heard were from Brazil with Rádio Sociedade on 740 and Rádio Metropolitana on 930 kHz having fair signals.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10729 2005.01.31 1   S11W79 0020 HAX spotless
10730 2005.02.04 3 2 S20E33 0060 CSO classification was HAX at midnight
10731 2005.02.06 2   S02E14 0010 HAX spotless
10732 2005.02.06 5 9 N09E57 0090 DSO beta-gamma
classification was DAO at midnight, area 0060
location: N12E49
10733 2005.02.07 1 3 S09E78 0180 HAX beta-delta
classification was HKX at midnight, area 0300
Total spot count: 12 14  
SSN: 62 44  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2003.12 114.9 46.5 54.8 (-1.9)
2004.01 114.1 37.3 52.0 (-2.8)
2004.02 107.0 45.8 49.3 (-2.7)
2004.03 112.0 49.1 47.1 (-2.2)
2004.04 101.2 39.3 45.5 (-1.6)
2004.05 99.8 41.5 43.9 (-1.6)
2004.06 97.4 43.2 41.7 (-2.2)
2004.07 119.1 51.0 40.3 (-1.4)
2004.08 109.6 40.9 (38.9 predicted, -1.4)
2004.09 103.1 27.7 (36.6 predicted, -2.3)
2004.10 105.9 48.4 (34.4 predicted, -2.2)
2004.11 113.2 43.7 (32.5 predicted, -1.9)
2004.12 94.5 17.9 (30.2 predicted, -2.3)
2005.01 102.2 31.3 (27.6 predicted, -2.6)
2005.02 89.3 (1) 8.3 (2) (25.2 predicted, -2.4)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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