Last major update issued on June 14, 2005 at 04:25 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 4, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 4, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 4, 2005)]
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[Archived reports (last update June 4, 2005)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm on June 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 382 and 536 km/sec. The effects from the CME which arrived on June 12 decreased quickly after noon.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 91.8. The planetary
index was 33 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 56444332 (planetary), 56444332 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events was recorded during the day.
Region 10775 decayed further and was quiet.
Region 10776 decayed and lost all penumbra on the trailing spots.
June 11 and 13: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO images.
June 12: A faint full halo CME was observed after a very long duration C3.5 event in region 10775 early in the day.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
An elongated coronal hole (CH170) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on June 11-13.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on June 6. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 14 becoming unsettled to minor storm on June 15-16 due to a high speed stream from CH170 and the arrival of the CME observed on June 12.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is fair. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay and Radio Rafaela (Argentina). On other frequencies many stations from Brazil were heard. Rádio Clube Paranaense on 1430 and Rádio Cristal on 1350 kHz both had fairly strong signals.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10773||2005.06.01||3||S16W80||0030||BXO||spotless for the second consecutive day|
|10775||2005.06.04||16||10||N10W46||0290||DHI||classification was CKO at midnight|
|10776||2005.06.05||24||14||S06W34||0380||DKO||classification was CHO at midnight|
|Total spot count:||43||24|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2004.12||94.5||17.9||(34.8 predicted, -0.5)|
|2005.01||102.2||31.3||(32.8 predicted, -2.0)|
|2005.02||97.2||29.1||(30.4 predicted, -2.4)|
|2005.03||89.9||24.8||(28.8 predicted, -1.6)|
|2005.04||86.0||24.4||(26.9 predicted, -1.9)|
|2005.05||99.3||42.6||(24.3 predicted, -2.6)|
|2005.06||103.9 (1)||36.6 (2)||(22.8 predicted, -1.5)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.