Last major update issued on June 16, 2005 at 03:55 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 4, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 4, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 4, 2005)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update June 4, 2005)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on June 15. Solar wind speed ranged between 448 and 532 km/sec, slowly decreasing after 14h UTC.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 94.5. The planetary
index was 21 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 35334332 (planetary), 34344332 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight there were 4 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 1 C class event was recorded during the day.
Region 10775 was quiet and stable and will rotate over the northwest limb today.
Region 10776 was mostly unchanged. Flare: C2.2 at 18:43 UTC.
New region 10778 emerged in the northwest quadrant on June 14 and was numbered the next day by SEC.
New region 10779 emerged in the southeast quadrant on June 14 and was noticed by SEC the next day. The region developed quickly and could produce C flares.
June 14: A full halo CME was observed in LASCO images after a long duration C4 event in region 10775 during the morning.
With no available LASCO images covering the C7 long duration event later in the day, it is uncertain if there was another full
halo CME then.
June 13 and 15: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO images.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
An elongated coronal hole (CH170) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on June 11-13.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on June 6. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on June 16 due to a high speed stream from CH170. The CME observed on June 14 could arrive during the latter half of June 16 or early on June 17 and cause unsettled to major storm conditions. Quiet to active is likely on June 18 becoming quiet to unsettled on June 19.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is poor to fair. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay. Rádio Metropolitana on 930 and Rádio Eldorado on 700 kHz both had impressive signals, weak signals from other stations from Brazil were observed on several other frequencies,
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10775||2005.06.04||4||1||N09W74||0230||DHO||classification was HAX at midnight, area 0180|
|10776||2005.06.05||5||1||S05W64||0320||CHO||classification was HHX at midnight|
|10778||2005.06.15||1||3||N07W38||0030||HSX||formerly region S558|
|10779||2005.06.15||14||12||S17E08||0150||DAI||formerly region S559|
|Total spot count:||24||17|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2004.12||94.5||17.9||(34.8 predicted, -0.5)|
|2005.01||102.2||31.3||(32.8 predicted, -2.0)|
|2005.02||97.2||29.1||(30.4 predicted, -2.4)|
|2005.03||89.9||24.8||(28.8 predicted, -1.6)|
|2005.04||86.0||24.4||(26.9 predicted, -1.9)|
|2005.05||99.3||42.6||(24.3 predicted, -2.6)|
|2005.06||102.6 (1)||40.2 (2)||(22.8 predicted, -1.5)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.