Last major update issued on October 17, 2005 at 04:05 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October 2, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2005)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update October 2, 2005)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on October 16. Solar wind speed ranged between 291 and 372 (all day average 329) km/sec under the influence of a low speed stream from CH192.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 79.2. The planetary
index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 11222223 (planetary), 12322223 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A3 level.
At midnight there was one spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10815 was quiet and stable.
October 14-16: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near potentially geoeffective Earth facing positions.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on October 17. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on October 17 due to a low speed stream from CH192. Quiet is likely on October 18-20.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes was fair early on October 17, however, conditions degraded to poor to fair within a few hours. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: WLAM Lewiston ME early on, later Radio Vibración (Venezuela).
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|Total spot count:||11||12|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2005.04||86.0||24.4||(31.9 predicted, -1.6)|
|2005.05||99.3||42.6||(29.4 predicted, -2.5)|
|2005.06||93.7||39.6||(28.1 predicted, -1.3)|
|2005.07||96.4||39.9||(26.9 predicted, -1.2)|
|2005.08||90.5||36.4||(25.0 predicted, -1.9)|
|2005.09||91.1||22.1||(23.0 predicted, -2.0)|
|2005.10||78.8 (1)||7.8 (2)||(21.0 predicted, -2.0)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.