Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on February 28, 2006 at 03:50 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update February 4, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update February 4, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update February 4, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update February 7, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was inactive to quiet on February 27. Solar wind speed ranged between 334 and 355 (all day average 345) km/sec.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 77.0. The planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.1).
Three hour interval K indices: 11201002 (planetary), 21212001 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A1 level.

At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

New region 10826 rotated into view at the southeast limb on February 26 and was numbered by SEC the next day.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

February 25-27: No obviously fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A small recurrent coronal hole (CH214) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on February 24-25.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:20 UTC on February 28. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 28 due to weak coronal hole effects and quiet on March 1-2.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
Coronal hole indicator CME indicator M and X class flare indicator

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Vibración (Venezuela). Only the most common east coast North American stations were audible early on Feb.28.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10856 2006.02.27 1 2 S08E69 0010 AXX formerly region S627
location was S08E66 at midnight, classification HSX and area 0020
Total spot count: 1 2  
SSN: 11 12  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2004.12 94.5 17.9 35.2 (-0.1)
2005.01 102.2 31.3 34.6 (-0.6)
2005.02 97.2 29.2 33.9 (-0.7)
2005.03 89.9 24.5 33.5 (-0.4)
2005.04 86.0 24.4 31.6 (-1.9)
2005.05 99.3 42.6 28.9 (-2.7)
2005.06 93.7 39.6 28.8 (-0.1)
2005.07 96.4 39.9 29.1 (+0.3)
2005.08 90.5 36.4 (27.6 predicted, -1.5)
2005.09 91.1 22.1 (25.8 predicted, -1.8)
2005.10 77.0 8.5 (24.0 predicted, -1.8)
2005.11 86.3 18.0 (21.6 predicted, -2.4)
2005.12 90.7 41.2 (18.7 predicted, -2.9)
2006.01 83.4 15.4 (15.6 predicted, -3.1)
2006.02 76.5 (1) 4.4 (2) (12.5 predicted, -3.1)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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