Last major update issued on January 29, 2006 at 05:10 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update January 8, 2006)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 454 and 574 (all day average 524) km/sec under the decreasing influence of a high speed stream.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 80.0. The planetary A
index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 21221122 (planetary), 11322222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A6 level.
At midnight the visible solar disk was spotless. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
January 26-28: No obviously fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH207) was in an Earth facing position on January 28-29. A coronal hole (CH208) in the northern hemisphere could rotate into an Earth facing position on January 30.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on January 29. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on January 29-30. Effects from CH207 and CH208 are possible on January 31-Februay 2 with some unsettled and active intervals likely.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is very poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: Radio Vibración (Venezuela) and WLAM Lewiston ME. Many stations from the easternmost parts of North America were audible on other frequencies.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10848||2006.01.18||1||S24W88||0030||HAX||rotated out of view|
|Total spot count:||1||0|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2005.07||96.4||39.9||(29.1 predicted, +0.3)|
|2005.08||90.5||36.4||(27.4 predicted, -1.7)|
|2005.09||91.1||22.1||(25.4 predicted, -2.0)|
|2005.10||77.0||8.5||(23.4 predicted, -2.0)|
|2005.11||86.3||18.0||(21.0 predicted, -2.4)|
|2005.12||90.7||41.2||(18.2 predicted, -2.8)|
|2006.01||83.9 (1)||26.7 (2)||(15.2 predicted, -3.0)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.