Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on July 2, 2006 at 04:25 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 7, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 7, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 7, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update June 5, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on July 1. Solar wind speed ranged between 414 and 458 km/s (all day average 443 km/s - decreasing 60 km/s from the previous day).

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 85.5. The planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.8).
Three hour interval K indices: 12101211 (planetary), 13211001 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A6 level.

At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10897 decayed slowly and could become spotless today.
Region 10898 added a few small spots. Magnetically the region is not that complex anymore as areas of positive polarity have disappeared from the western edge of the main penumbra.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

June 28-30: No partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH230) will be in an Earth facing position on July 2-3.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on July 2. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on July 2-3 and become unsettled to minor storm from late on July 4 until July 6 due to a high speed stream from CH230.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Radio Cristal del Uruguay again had the best signal overall. Several other stations, including Radio Vibración (Venezuela), were occasionally on top. Several stations from Brazil were heard on 1390 kHz and had company from Radio Fé y Alegria (Venezuela) and Radio Universidad (Argentina). 850 Radio Carve was unusually good and 1190 Radio América had the best signal of the night and early morning. Usable audio was still present on several stations more than 90 minutes past LSR.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10897 2006.06.25 6 2 N06W12 0030 BXO classification was CSO at midnight, area 0010
location: N06W09
10898 2006.06.28 10 11 S06E26 0210 CHO area was 0320 at midnight
S666 2006.06.28     N05W17     plage
Total spot count: 16 13  
SSN: 36 33  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2005.05 99.3 42.7 28.9 (-2.7)
2005.06 93.7 39.3 28.8 (-0.1)
2005.07 96.4 40.1 29.1 (+0.3)
2005.08 90.5 36.4 27.4 (-1.7)
2005.09 91.1 21.9 25.8 (-1.6)
2005.10 77.0 8.5 25.5 (-0.3)
2005.11 86.3 18.0 24.9 (-0.6)
2005.12 90.7 41.2 23.0 (-1.9)
2006.01 83.4 15.4 (20.7 predicted, -2.3)
2006.02 76.5 4.7 (18.2 predicted, -2.5)
2006.03 75.4 10.8 (16.4 predicted, -1.8)
2006.04 89.0 30.2 (15.7 predicted, -0.7)
2006.05 80.9 22.2 (14.9 predicted, -0.8)
2006.06 76.5 13.9 (12.7 predicted, -2.2)
2006.07 85.5 (1) 1.2 (2) (11.3 predicted, -1.4)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


[DX-Listeners' Club]