Last major update issued on July 16, 2006 at 03:35 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on July 15. Solar wind speed ranged between 383 and 520 km/s (all day average 437 km/s - decreasing 5 km/s from the previous day).
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 70.2. The planetary A index
was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 22222212 (planetary), 02223221 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is below the class A1 level.
At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10900 did not change significantly and was generally quiet.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S668] This region emerged on July 15 to the east of region 10900. The region currently has reversed polarities. Location at midnight: S04E36
July 13-15: No partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or approaching Earth facing locations.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on July 15. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 15 and quiet on July 16-20.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. A few stations from Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil were noted on other frequencies. Only 930 CJYQ and 1510 WWZN had audio when the antenna directed at North America was used, although lots of frequencies had fairly strong carriers.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10900||2006.07.14||7||6||S05E30||0050||CAO||classification was CRO at midnight, area 0020
|Total spot count:||7||8|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2006.01||83.4||15.4||(20.7 predicted, -2.3)|
|2006.02||76.5||4.7||(18.2 predicted, -2.5)|
|2006.03||75.4||10.8||(16.4 predicted, -1.8)|
|2006.04||89.0||30.2||(15.7 predicted, -0.7)|
|2006.05||80.9||22.2||(14.9 predicted, -0.8)|
|2006.06||76.5||13.9||(12.7 predicted, -2.2)|
|2006.07||78.2 (1)||12.8 (2)||(11.3 predicted, -1.4)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.