Last major update issued on June 30, 2006 at 04:05 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 7, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 7, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 7, 2006)]
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[Archived reports (last update June 5, 2006)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 29. Solar wind speed ranged between 517 and 598 km/s (all day average 557 km/s - increasing 52 km/s over the previous day) under the influence of a high speed stream from CH229.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 85.5. The planetary A index
was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 32332333 (planetary), 23333322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A8 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10897 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10898 developed several new spots. This compact region has a weak magnetic delta structure in the southern part of the main penumbra. C flares are possible and there is a minor chance of a small M class flare.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S666] This region decayed slowly on June 29 and lost penumbra on the trailing spot. Location at midnight: N05E11
June 27-29: No partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH229) was in an Earth facing position June 24-26. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH230) will likely rotate into an Earth facing location on July 2-3.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on June 30. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on June 30 - July 3 and become unsettled to minor storm from late on July 4 until July 6.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Radio Cristal del Uruguay occasionally had a strong signal. On other frequencies lots of weak signals, mostly from Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay, were noted .
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10897||2006.06.25||12||11||N06E15||0070||ERO||classification was DSO at midnight, area 0040
classification was DAC at midnight
|S666||2006.06.28||2||N05E11||0020||CSO||split off from 10897|
|Total spot count:||15||29|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2005.12||90.7||41.2||(22.8 predicted, -2.1)|
|2006.01||83.4||15.4||(20.1 predicted, -2.7)|
|2006.02||76.5||4.7||(17.1 predicted, -3.0)|
|2006.03||75.4||10.8||(15.1 predicted, -2.0)|
|2006.04||89.0||30.2||(14.4 predicted, -0.7)|
|2006.05||80.9||22.2||(13.5 predicted, -0.9)|
|2006.06||76.2 (1)||23.2 (2)||(11.4 predicted, -2.1)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.