Last major update issued on March 13, 2006 at 05:45 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was inactive to quiet on March 12. Solar wind speed ranged between 447 and 557 (all day average 502) km/sec under the decreasing influence of a high speed stream from CH215.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 73.2. The planetary A index
was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 01211221 (planetary), 01222100 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is below the class A1 level.
At midnight there was 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
New region 10858 emerged quickly in the northeast quadrant.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S630] This region rotated into view at the southeast limb on March 12. Location at midnight: S03E77.
March 10-12: No rtly or fully Earth directed CMEs were observed in \LASCO images.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH215) appears to have become larger over the last solar rotation and was in an Earth facing position on March 5-7.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:20 UTC on February 28. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on March 13-15.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: WLAM Lewiston ME with a weak signal.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10858||2006.03.12||8||6||N18E15||0020||CRO||classification was DSO at midnight, area 0040|
|Total spot count:||8||7|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2005.09||91.1||21.9||(25.6 predicted, -1.8)|
|2005.10||77.0||8.5||(23.8 predicted, -1.8)|
|2005.11||86.3||18.0||(21.4 predicted, -2.4)|
|2005.12||90.7||41.2||(18.5 predicted, -2.9)|
|2006.01||83.4||15.4||(15.4 predicted, -3.1)|
|2006.02||76.5||4.7||(12.3 predicted, -3.1)|
|2006.03||74.2 (1)||5.1 (2)||(10.1 predicted, -2.2)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.