Last major update issued on March 15, 2006 at 04:30 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 2, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 2, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 2, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update March 2, 2006)]
The geomagnetic field was inactive to quiet on March 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 343 and 428 (all day average 377) km/sec. An increase in solar wind speed and density was observed late in the day as a weak disturbance began.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 73.6. The planetary A index
was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 00012222 (planetary), 00112202 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is below the class A1 level.
At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
New region 10859 emerged in the southwest quadrant on March 13 and was
numbered the next day by NOAA/SEC. The region is rotating over the southwest
New region 10860 rotated into view at the southeast limb on March 12 and was noticed 2 days later by SEC. The region produced a few sub flares during the day.
March 12-14: No partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were observed in limited LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:20 UTC on February 28. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on March 15 and quiet to unsettled on March 16-18.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Vibración (Venezuela). Propagation was fair early on to the easternmost parts of North America, however, reception deteriorated as the current disturbance intensified.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10859||2006.03.14||1||1||S07W79||0010||AXX||formerly region S631|
|10860||2006.03.14||1||3||S03E50||0010||HSX||formerly region S630|
|Total spot count:||4||4|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2005.09||91.1||21.9||(25.6 predicted, -1.8)|
|2005.10||77.0||8.5||(23.8 predicted, -1.8)|
|2005.11||86.3||18.0||(21.4 predicted, -2.4)|
|2005.12||90.7||41.2||(18.5 predicted, -2.9)|
|2006.01||83.4||15.4||(15.4 predicted, -3.1)|
|2006.02||76.5||4.7||(12.3 predicted, -3.1)|
|2006.03||74.0 (1)||6.7 (2)||(10.1 predicted, -2.2)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.