Last major update issued on November 6, 2006 at 04:45 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 343 and 418 km/s (all day average 368 km/s - decreasing 35 km/s from the previous day)..
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 84.7. The planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.6). Three hour interval K indices: 01231101 (planetary), 01332210 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A5 level.
At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 2 C class events was recorded during the day.
Region 10921 decayed slowly and remains capable of producing
occasional C flares. Flares: long duration
C1.3 peaking at 07:51 and C3.7 at 12:27 UTC.
Region 10922 decayed slowly and quietly.
November 3-5: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in limited LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, CH247, will rotate into an Earth facing position on November 6-7.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 2. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 6-8 and become quiet to active on November 9-11 due to a high speed stream from CH247.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: No monitoring on November 6. On November 3 propagation didn't favour any particular area with stations from North America, the Caribbean and the northern parts of South America all heard at mostly fair signal levels. On November 4 propagation was very poor while November 5 saw a very fast recovery after the coronal hole disturbance. Lots of interesting stations were heard then including 1410 WMYR, 1420 WDJA and 1410 Radio Mensabé (Panamá).
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
Active region | Date numbered | SEC spot count |
STAR spot count |
Location at midnight | Area | Classification | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10921 | 2006.10.31 | 26 | 19 | S08W24 | 0290 | ESO | |
10922 | 2006.10.31 | 16 | 7 | S09W13 | 0090 | CAO | |
Total spot count: | 42 | 26 | |||||
SSN: | 62 | 46 |
Month | Average solar flux at Earth |
International sunspot number | Smoothed sunspot number |
---|---|---|---|
2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 |
2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) |
2005.08 | 90.5 | 36.4 | 27.4 (-1.7) |
2005.09 | 91.1 | 21.9 | 25.8 (-1.6) |
2005.10 | 77.0 | 8.7 | 25.5 (-0.3) |
2005.11 | 86.3 | 18.0 | 24.9 (-0.6) |
2005.12 | 90.7 | 41.1 | 23.0 (-1.9) |
2006.01 | 83.4 | 15.3 | 20.8 (-2.2) |
2006.02 | 76.5 | 4.9 | 18.6 (-2.2) |
2006.03 | 75.4 | 10.6 | 17.3 (-1.3) |
2006.04 | 89.0 | 30.2 | 17.1 (-0.2) |
2006.05 | 80.9 | 22.2 | (16.8 predicted, -0.3) |
2006.06 | 76.5 | 13.9 | (15.1 predicted, -1.7) |
2006.07 | 75.7 | 12.2 | (13.2 predicted, -1.9) |
2006.08 | 79.0 | 12.9 | (12.7 predicted, -0.5) |
2006.09 | 77.8 | 14.5 | (12.6 predicted, -0.1) |
2006.10 | 74.3 | 10.4 | (11.5 predicted, -1.1) |
2006.11 | 86.5 (1) | 9.2 (2) | (10.1 predicted, -1.4) |
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC)
sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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