Last major update issued on November 7, 2006 at 04:10 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was very quiet on November 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 300 and 372 km/s (all day average 339 km/s - decreasing 29 km/s from the previous day)..
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 83.5. The planetary A index was 1 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 1.3). Three hour interval K indices: 00100001 (planetary), 00212111 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 2 C class events was recorded during the day. A C2.4 long duration event peaking at 10:51 and a C8.8 flare at 17:46 UTC both had their origin in a very active region just behind the east limb. Both events were associated with CMEs, the C8.8 flare was followed by a large full halo CME. The region behind the east limb is capable of M class flaring and could rotate partly into view later today.
Region 10921 decayed further and could produce a C class flare.
Region 10922 decayed quickly and could soon become spotless.
November 4-6: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in limited LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, CH247, was in an Earth facing position on November 6-7.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 7. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 7-8 and become quiet to active on November 9-11 due to a high speed stream from CH247.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is very poor.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: Lots of stations from North America, primarily from the east coast, were heard with fair to excellent signals during the night. Stations like 1090 WBAL and 1110 WBT had huge signals.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10922||2006.10.31||1||1||S08W24||0020||AXX||classification was HRX at midnight|
|Total spot count:||10||13|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2006.05||80.9||22.2||(16.8 predicted, -0.3)|
|2006.06||76.5||13.9||(15.1 predicted, -1.7)|
|2006.07||75.7||12.2||(13.2 predicted, -1.9)|
|2006.08||79.0||12.9||(12.7 predicted, -0.5)|
|2006.09||77.8||14.5||(12.6 predicted, -0.1)|
|2006.10||74.3||10.4||(11.5 predicted, -1.1)|
|2006.11||86.0 (1)||10.2 (2)||(10.1 predicted, -1.4)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.