Last major update issued on November 12, 2006 at 05:05 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update November 12, 2006)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 11. Solar wind speed ranged between 508 and 623 km/s (all day average 578 km/s - increasing 31 km/s over the previous day) under the influence of a high speed stream from CH247.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 97.0. The planetary A index was 20 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 20.4). Three hour interval K indices: 34444332 (planetary), 34544332 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10923 developed with new spots emerging both inside and outside the huge penumbra, primarily in the southeast section. A magnetic delta structure could be forming in the southeast. The possibility of an M class flare (possibly associated with a large CME) is slowly increasing.
November 9-11: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near an Earth facing position.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 11. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on November 12-15, possibly with a few unsettled intervals early in the period.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: Propagation to North America improved with a few stations noted. The best signals were heard from 930 CJYQ, 1320 CKEC and 1510 WWZN. Otherwise stations from Colombia seemed to be doing OK (particulalrly 650 and 980 kHz) were good.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10923||2006.11.08||3||15||S04E34||0620||HKX||classification was DKC at midnight|
|Total spot count:||3||15|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2006.05||80.9||22.2||(16.8 predicted, -0.3)|
|2006.06||76.5||13.9||(15.1 predicted, -1.7)|
|2006.07||75.7||12.2||(13.2 predicted, -1.9)|
|2006.08||79.0||12.9||(12.7 predicted, -0.5)|
|2006.09||77.8||14.5||(12.6 predicted, -0.1)|
|2006.10||74.3||10.4||(11.5 predicted, -1.1)|
|2006.11||87.9 (1)||14.2 (2)||(10.1 predicted, -1.4)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.