Last major update issued on November 14, 2006 at 05:25 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was very quiet on November 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 357 and 467 km/s (all day average 408 km/s - decreasing 105 km/s from the previous day).
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 95.2. The planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 1.8). Three hour interval K indices: 00100001 (planetary), 00200100 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A6 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 1 C class event was recorded during the day.
Region 10923 did not change much. The huge penumbra is now almost
symmetrical and only a few small spots are visible outside of that penumbra.
Flare: C1.0 at 06:42 UTC.
New region 10924 rotated into view on November 12 and was numbered by NOAA/SEC the following day.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S682] This region emerged quickly in the southeast quadrant to the west southwest of region 10924 on November 13. The region was decaying late in the day. Note that SEC/NOAA has mistakenly included this region in region 10924. Location at midnight: S08E53
November 11-13: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near an Earth facing position. A weak coronal structure is just west of region 10923, this is perhaps the remains of CH244.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 12. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on November 14-15. The quiet conditions could extend for several more days, however, there is some uncertainty as to whether a weak stream from what was CH244 during the previous rotation could arrive on November 16-17.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to occasionally fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: Propagation to North America was unimpressive. Although stations like 1480 WSAR and 1370 WDEA were audible, signals were generally rather weak.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10924||2006.11.13||3||2||S07E59||0070||CAO||formerly region S681
classification was HAX at midnight, area 0050
|Total spot count:||10||13|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2006.05||80.9||22.2||(16.8 predicted, -0.3)|
|2006.06||76.5||13.9||(15.1 predicted, -1.7)|
|2006.07||75.7||12.2||(13.2 predicted, -1.9)|
|2006.08||79.0||12.9||(12.7 predicted, -0.5)|
|2006.09||77.8||14.5||(12.6 predicted, -0.1)|
|2006.10||74.3||10.4||(11.5 predicted, -1.1)|
|2006.11||89.1 (1)||15.8 (2)||(10.1 predicted, -1.4)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.