Last major update issued on November 17, 2006 at 04:25 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 16 with the exception of a brief mid latitude disturbance 00-03h UTC when active to minor storm conditions were recorded. Solar wind speed ranged between 336 and 431 km/s (all day average 382 km/s - increasing 42 km/s over the previous day).
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 94.1. The planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.6). Three hour interval K indices: 52101101 (planetary), 52101111 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A3 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10923 decayed slowly and lost most of the small spots which had
emerged one day earlier.
Region 10924 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10925 was quiet and stable.
November 14-16: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole, CH248, in the southern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on November 20-21.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 16. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 17-19.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: Propagation was fairly similar to the previous night with most of the TA signals coming from the easternmost parts of North America. Stations like 1410 WPOP and 1430 WENE were noted with fair signals.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10925||2006.11.14||2||3||S05E26||0060||HSX||classification was CAO at midnight|
|Total spot count:||12||15|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2006.05||80.9||22.2||(16.8 predicted, -0.3)|
|2006.06||76.5||13.9||(15.1 predicted, -1.7)|
|2006.07||75.7||12.2||(13.2 predicted, -1.9)|
|2006.08||79.0||12.9||(12.7 predicted, -0.5)|
|2006.09||77.8||14.5||(12.6 predicted, -0.1)|
|2006.10||74.3||10.4||(11.5 predicted, -1.1)|
|2006.11||90.2 (1)||20.2 (2)||(10.1 predicted, -1.4)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.