Last major update issued on November 27, 2006 at 04:25 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 26. Solar wind speed ranged between 533 and 676 km/s (all day average 588 km/s - increasing 19 km/s over the previous day) under the influence of a high speed stream from CH248. Solar wind speed decreased gradually during the latter half of the day as Earth was moving out of the high speed stream.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 78.2. The planetary A index was 15 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 14.8). Three hour interval K indices: 34432133 (planetary), 34422232 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A8 level.
At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10926 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Occasional C flares are possible,
November 24-26: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A small recurrent coronal hole (CH249) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on November 26.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 24. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet November 27-28. A few unsettled intervals are possible on November 29 due to effects from CH249 with quiet conditions again likely on November 30 and December 1.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: Some stations from the Canadian Atlantic provinces, the east coast of the USA, from Cuba and the northern parts of South America were audible with mostly poor to fair signals during the night.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10926||2006.11.24||2||4||S08E60||0160||HKX||classification was CAO at midnight|
|Total spot count:||2||4|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2006.05||80.9||22.2||(16.8 predicted, -0.3)|
|2006.06||76.5||13.9||(15.1 predicted, -1.7)|
|2006.07||75.7||12.2||(13.2 predicted, -1.9)|
|2006.08||79.0||12.9||(12.7 predicted, -0.5)|
|2006.09||77.8||14.5||(12.6 predicted, -0.1)|
|2006.10||74.3||10.4||(11.5 predicted, -1.1)|
|2006.11||86.6 (1)||26.3 (2)||(10.1 predicted, -1.4)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.