Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on October 23, 2006 at 05:00 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October 2, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update October 2, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on October 23. Solar wind speed ranged between 477 and 598 km/s (all day average 556 km/s - decreasing 23 km/s from the previous day) under the influence of a high speed stream from CH244.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 75.8. The planetary A index was 13 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.1). Three hour interval K indices: 25312233 (planetary), 35423333 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A4 level.

At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10917 developed further adding and added penumbral area. The opposite polarity areas are better separated than they were a day ago. There is a chance of a C flare.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 20-22: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A poorly defined coronal hole (CH245) in the northern hemisphere could rotate into an Earth facing position on October 24-25. It should be noted that this may be part of a much larger trans equatorial coronal hole structure currently in development.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on October 23. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on October 23. Mostly quiet conditions are likely for October 24-26. On October 27-29 some unsettled and maybe even active intervals are possible due to effects from CH245.

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E05: Strong signals were noted from some New York (in particular 1050 WEPN and 1130 WBBR) stations and from stations on Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Propagation to North America appears to be rapidly improving.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.