Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on January 16, 2007 at 05:15 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 11, 2007)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 11, 2007)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 11, 2007)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update December 18, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm on January 15. Solar wind speed ranged between 301 and 697 km/s (all day average 482 km/s - increasing 147 km/s compared to the previous day). A high speed stream from CH255 arrived after 07h UTC.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 82.0. The planetary A index was 22 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 22.0). Three hour interval K indices: 22326431 (planetary), 23336422 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A5 level.

At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A single C class event was recorded during the day.

Region 10938 is somewhat unstable, probably because of some polarity intermixing. The region could produce further C flares. Flare: C1.4 at 03:08 UTC.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 13-15: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent coronal hole (CH255) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on January 12-16.

Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:00 UTC on January 16. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on January 16-17, perhaps with isolated major storm intervals, and quiet to unsettled on January 18-19 due to a high speed stream from CH255.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)



1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Monitoring has been temporarily suspended (as of January 1, 2007).

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10937 2007.01.08     S14W88     plage
10938 2007.01.13 6 9 N02E35 0090 DSO beta-gamma
classification was DSI at midnight, area 0040
Total spot count: 6 9  
SSN: 16 19  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2005.11 86.3 18.0 24.9 (-0.6)
2005.12 90.7 41.1 23.0 (-1.9)
2006.01 83.4 15.3 20.8 (-2.2)
2006.02 76.5 4.9 18.6 (-2.2)
2006.03 75.4 10.6 17.3 (-1.3)
2006.04 89.0 30.2 17.1 (-0.2)
2006.05 80.9 22.2 17.3 (+0.2)
2006.06 76.5 13.9 16.3 (-1.0)
2006.07 75.7 12.2 (15.0 predicted, -1.3)
2006.08 79.0 12.9 (14.9 predicted, -0.1)
2006.09 77.8 14.5 (14.7 predicted, -0.2)
2006.10 74.3 10.4 (13.5 predicted, -1.2)
2006.11 86.3 21.5 (12.1 predicted, -1.4)
2006.12 84.5 13.6 (11.7 predicted, -0.4)
2007.01 86.0 (1) 18.0 (2) (11.9 predicted, +0.2)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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