Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on January 18, 2007 at 04:40 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 11, 2007)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 11, 2007)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 11, 2007)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update December 18, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on January 17. Solar wind speed ranged between 586 and 756 km/s (all day average 671 km/s - increasing 59 km/s compared to the previous day) under the influence of a high speed stream from CH255.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 78.1. The planetary A index was 26 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 26.1). Three hour interval K indices: 44433354 (planetary), 44443344 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A2 level.

At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10938 was mostly unchanged with only small spots remaining in the trailing negative polarity area.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S691] This region emerged on January 17 near the center of the visible disk. Location at midnight: S01E02

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 15-17: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent coronal hole (CH255) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on January 12-16.

Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:00 UTC on January 18. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on January 18 and quiet to unsettled on January 19 due to a high speed stream from CH255. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on January 20-22.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)



1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Monitoring has been temporarily suspended (as of January 1, 2007).

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10938 2007.01.13 7 8 N03E10 0010 BXO classification was AXX at midnight
S691 2007.01.17   3 S01E02 0010 HRX  
Total spot count: 7 11  
SSN: 17 31  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2005.11 86.3 18.0 24.9 (-0.6)
2005.12 90.7 41.1 23.0 (-1.9)
2006.01 83.4 15.3 20.8 (-2.2)
2006.02 76.5 4.9 18.6 (-2.2)
2006.03 75.4 10.6 17.3 (-1.3)
2006.04 89.0 30.2 17.1 (-0.2)
2006.05 80.9 22.2 17.3 (+0.2)
2006.06 76.5 13.9 16.3 (-1.0)
2006.07 75.7 12.2 (15.0 predicted, -1.3)
2006.08 79.0 12.9 (14.9 predicted, -0.1)
2006.09 77.8 14.5 (14.7 predicted, -0.2)
2006.10 74.3 10.4 (13.5 predicted, -1.2)
2006.11 86.3 21.5 (12.1 predicted, -1.4)
2006.12 84.5 13.6 (11.7 predicted, -0.4)
2007.01 85.1 (1) 19.1 (2) (11.9 predicted, +0.2)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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