Last major update issued on March 30, 2007 at 04:00 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 10, 2007)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 10, 2007)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 10, 2007)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update February 6, 2007)]
The geomagnetic field was very quiet on March 29. Solar wind speed ranged between 349 and 426 km/s (average speed was 365 km/s, decreasing 132 km/s from the previous day).
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 73.8. The planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.4). Three hour interval K indices: 11001001 (planetary), 11011001 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is below the class A1 level.
At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10949 decayed and could soon become spotless
March 27-29: No obvious fully or partially Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH263) in the southern hemisphere will be in an Earth facing position on March 28-30.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:00 UTC on March 30. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on March 30-31. Quiet to active conditions are possible from late on March 31 and on April 1-2 due to effects from CH263.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Daily monitoring will not resume until a local noise problem (related to construction work on a neighboring property) has been fixed. Occasional monitoring reports will be submitted when propagation is good.
March 23, 2007: Strong signals were noted from a number of USA east coast stations. Some stations from the Canadian Atlantic provinces had signals exceeding S9 (on a Drake R8A).
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10949||2007.03.28||4||1||N06E48||0040||CSO||classification was AXX at midnight, area 0010|
|Total spot count:||4||1|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2006.09||77.8||14.4||(15.6 predicted, +0.0)|
|2006.10||74.3||10.4||(14.4 predicted, -1.2)|
|2006.11||86.3||21.5||(12.8 predicted, -1.6)|
|2006.12||84.5||13.6||(11.9 predicted, -0.9)|
|2007.01||83.3||16.9||(11.5 predicted, -0.4)|
|2007.02||77.7||10.6||(11.4 predicted, -0.1)|
|2007.03||72.1 (1)||8.9 (2)||(11.6 predicted, +0.2)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.