Last major update issued on November 17, 2007 at 05:50 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
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[Archived reports (last update October 3, 2007)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 16. Solar wind speed ranged between 479 and 561 km/s (average speed was 528 km/s, decreasing 70 km/s from the previous day) under the influence of a high speed stream from CH298.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 70.4. The planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.4). Three hour interval K indices: 10122113 (planetary), 11222113 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is below the class A1 level.
At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
New region 10974 emerged near the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. There is a slight chance of a C flare.
November 14-16: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH298) was in an Earth facing position on November 10-14. A new coronal hole (CH299) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on November 14-15 while a recurrent coronal hole (CH300) in the southern hemisphere could reach a potentially geoeffective position on November 17-18.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:00 UTC on November 17. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is fai. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: November 12: During the evening fairly strong signals from east coast USA stations. 1470 WJDY, 1500 WFIF and 1520 WIZZ were all good on their daytime power. The best Trans Atlantic propagation sector was 270-310 degrees.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 17-19. November 20-21 could see quiet to minor storm conditions due to a high speed stream from CH300.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10974||2007.11.16||3||7||N12W04||0020||BXO||classification was DRO at midnight, area 0030|
|Total spot count:||3||7|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2007.05||74.4||11.7||(8.7 predicted, -1.2)|
|2007.06||73.7||12.0||(7.5 predicted, -1.2)|
|2007.07||71.6||10.0||(6.7 predicted, -0.8)|
|2007.08||69.1||6.2||(6.2 predicted, -0.5)|
|2007.09||67.1||2.4||(6.2 predicted, +0.0)|
|2007.10||67.4||0.9||(6.7 predicted, +0.5)|
|2007.11||68.8 (1)||0.7 (2)||(7.3 predicted, +0.6)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.