Last major update issued on September 21, 2007 at 05:00 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 23, 2007)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 23, 2007)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 23, 2007)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports (last update July 1, 2007)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on September 20. Solar wind speed ranged between 285 and 438 km/s (average speed was 351 km/s, increasing 40 km/s over the previous day). A high speed stream from CH291 began to dominate the solar wind after 09h UTC.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 66.8. The planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.4). Three hour interval K indices: 01023343 (planetary), 01023433 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is below the class A1 level.
At midnight the visible solar disk was spotless. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
September 18-20: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A large, recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH291) will rotate into an Earth facing position on September 16-21.
Processed STEREO 195 image at 21:35 UTC on September 20. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: September 19 and 20: Many stations from the central and western parts of Canada and USA were heard with fair to excellent signals both days. OnSeptember 19 the Vancouver stations on 1320 and 1410 kHz peaked at S9+25 dB. On September 20 910 CKDQ and 920 CFRY were excellent, while the strongest signal was noted from the New York station on 880 kHz (at S9+35 dB).
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on September 21-24 due to a high speed stream from CH291. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on September 25-27.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|Total spot count:||0||0|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2007.03||72.2||4.8||(11.1 predicted, -0.5)|
|2007.04||72.4||3.7||(10.7 predicted, -0.4)|
|2007.05||74.4||11.7||(10.2 predicted, -0.5)|
|2007.06||73.7||12.0||(10.0 predicted, -0.2)|
|2007.07||71.6||10.0||(10.0 predicted, +0.0)|
|2007.08||69.1||6.2||(10.3 predicted, +0.3)|
|2007.09||67.3 (1)||3.2 (2)||(11.5 predicted, +1.2)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.