Last major update issued on January 3, 2008 at 05:30 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
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[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports (last update October 3, 2007)]
The geomagnetic field was inactive on January 2. Solar wind speed ranged between 338 and 354 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 79.6. The planetary A index was 1 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 1.0). Three hour interval K indices: 00000000 (planetary), 00001110 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A3 level.
At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A single C class event was recorded during the day.
Region 10980 was mostly unchanged. Further C class flares are possible. Flare: Very long duration C1.2 peaking at 10:00 UTC. This event was associated with a wide and fast CME. There is a chance of a flank impact from this CME.
December 31 - January 2: A CME associated with a C1.2 LDE on January 2 may cause a flank impact on January 5. The main part of the CME had a direction well away from Earth.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH306) has become fairly small and will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on January 4-5. A small coronal hole (CH307) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on January 2.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:00 UTC on January 3. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: January 1: Good signals were noted on most TA frequencies in widespread conditions as even a few west coast stations surfaced. Several stations from México had strong signals as did 1570 HRRF. The best Trans Atlantic propagation sector was 270-300 degrees.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on January 3-4. On January 5 there is a chance of weak effects from the CME observed on January 2 and for weak coronal hole effects from CH307.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SWPC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10980||2007.12.31||3||3||S08E58||0030||CSO||classification was HAX at midnight|
|Total spot count:||3||3|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2007.07||71.6||10.0||(7.2 predicted, -0.5)|
|2007.08||69.1||6.2||(6.7 predicted, -0.5)|
|2007.09||67.1||2.4||(6.7 predicted, +0.0)|
|2007.10||67.4||0.9||(7.2 predicted, +0.5)|
|2007.11||69.6||1.7||(7.8 predicted, +0.6)|
|2007.12||78.5||10.1||(8.1 predicted, +0.3)|
|2008.01||79.5 (1)||0.8 (2)||(8.7 predicted, +0.6)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.