Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on August 23, 2011 at 04:25 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update August 2, 2011)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update August 2, 2011)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update August 2, 2011)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update August 2, 2011)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated August 19, 2011]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2111 [June-July 2011]  - 2112 [July 2011] NEW
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on August 22. Solar wind speed ranged between 343 and 431 km/s, weakly under the influence of a low speed coronal hole stream.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 108.2 (increasing 14.7 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.8). Three hour interval K indices: 20201233 (planetary), 20311122 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 6 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11271 developed quickly in the northern part, magnetic delta structures could be forming at the northern and southern edges of the largest penumbra. An M class flare is possible. Flare: C1.1 long duration event peaking at 16:04 UTC
Region 11272 decayed quickly and was quiet.
Region 11274 was quiet and stable.
Region 11275 added a single trailing spot.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1171] reemerged on August 20. Location at midnight: N07W09
[S1177] emerged in the northwest quadrant on August 22. Location at midnight: N23W57

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

August 20-22: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH472) was in an Earth facing position on August 19-20. A recurrent coronal hole (CH473) in the northern hemisphere could rotate into an Earth facing position on August 24-25.

The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of an active interval on August 23 due to effects from CH472. Quiet conditions are likely on August 24-26. Quiet to active conditions are possible on August 27-28 due to CH473.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)



1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
11271 2011.08.14
2011.08.15
28 32 N17W16 0280 EKC DKC

beta-gamma

area: 0500

11272 2011.08.15
2011.08.16
11 18 S21W08 0060 DSI DRI

location: S22W07

S1171 2011.08.16   1 N07W09 0000   AXX  
11273 2011.08.16
2011.08.17
    S18W70           plage
S1173 2011.08.17     N24W27           plage
11274 2011.08.19
2011.08.20
2 5 N18E42 0030 DSO CRO location: N18E50
11275 2011.08.20
2011.08.21
1 4 N07E55 0010 CSO CRO location: N08E59
S1177 2011.08.22   1 N23W57 0000   AXX    
Total spot count: 42 61  
Sunspot number: 82 121  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Classification adjusted SN: 67 80  (Sum of total spot count + classification adjustment for each AR. Classification adjustment: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 49 40  k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.33 for STAR SDO

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
3.25
2010.05 73.8 8.7 15.5 (+1.5) 9.18 / 8.15
2010.06 72.5 13.6 16.4 (+0.9) 8.17 / 6.85
2010.07 79.8 16.1 16.7 (+0.3) 6.31 / 5.15
2010.08 79.2 19.6 17.4 (+0.7) 8.49 / 7.77
2010.09 81.1 25.2 19.6 (+2.2) 5.33 / 5.45
2010.10 81.6 23.5 23.2 (+3.6) 6.07 / 6.27
2010.11 82.5 21.5 26.5 (+3.3) 4.80 / 5.50
2010.12 84.2 14.4 28.8 (+2.3) 3.41 / 4.35
2011.01 83.6 19.1 31.0 (+2.2) 4.32 / 5.51
2011.02 94.6 29.4 (33.6 predicted, +2.6) 5.41 / 6.44
2011.03 115.0 56.2 (36.6 predicted, +3.0) 7.79 / 8.18
2011.04 112.6 54.4 (39.4 predicted, +2.8) 9.71 / 8.83
2011.05 95.8 41.6 (42.7 predicted, +3.3) 9.18 / 8.94
2011.06 95.8 37.0 (46.5 predicted, +3.8) 8.96
2011.07 94.2 43.9 (50.6 predicted, +4.1) 9.14
2011.08 100.9 (1) 42.1 (2A) / 59.3 (2B) (54.8 predicted, +4.2) (9.28)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.