Last major update issued on October 17, 2011 at 06:55 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on October 17. Solar wind speed ranged between 349 and 432 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 152.6 (increasing 8.3 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.1). Three hour interval K indices: 20001211 (planetary), 21002211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 12 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11314 [N28W29] was quiet with several new spots emerging.
Region 11316 [S12W24] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11317 [S26W10] was quiet and stable.
Region 11318 [N20W70] was quiet and stable.
Region 11319 [N11W26] was less active than during the previous day. An M
class flare is possible.
Region 11321 [S14E25] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 11322 [S26W82] was quiet and stable.
New region 11323 [N25E56] rotated into view at the northeast limb on
October 16 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.
New region 11324 [N12E80] rotated partly into view at the northeast limb.
Spotted regions not reported by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1276] emerged in the southwest quadrant on October 15 and developed
slowly on October 16. Slow decay was observed on October 17. Location at midnight:
S15W78
[S1279] emerged in the southeast quadrant on October 17. Location at midnight:
S19E54
[S1280] emerged in the southeast quadrant on October 17. Location at
midnight: S15E40
October 15-17: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A small trans equatorial coronal hole (CH480) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on October 19.
The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on October 18-21. Weak effects from CH480 are possible on October 22.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for higher resolution image)
Compare to the
previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with polarity overlay |
Comment | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | |||||
| 11312 | 2011.10.03 2011.10.04 |
1 | N22W96 | 0090 | HSX |
 |
rotated out of view |
|||
| 11313 | 2011.10.04 2011.10.05 |
2 | S16W81 | 0010 | BXO | SWPC error, region 11313 has rotated out of view. The location indicates they failed to recognize S1276 as a new region | ||||
| S1257 | 2011.10.07 | N11W58 | plage | |||||||
| 11314 | 2011.10.08 2011.10.09 |
1 | 19 | N27W30 | 0230 | CSO | DHO |
 |
 |
spot count includes 4 spots in the positive polarity field far to the east of the main penumbra |
| 11317 | 2011.10.10 2011.10.11 |
1 | 4 | S27W11 | 0050 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0080 |
| 11316 | 2011.10.10 2011.10.11 |
6 | 8 | S12W25 | 0150 | DAO | DKO |
 |
 |
area: 0400 |
| 11319 | 2011.10.10 2011.10.12 |
32 | 42 | N10W26 | 0420 | EKI | EHI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma |
| S1268 | 2011.10.10 | N20W25 |
 |
|||||||
| 11318 | 2011.10.11 2011.10.12 |
2 | 6 | N19W70 | 0030 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
|
| S1271 | 2011.10.12 | N07W40 | plage | |||||||
| 11321 | 2011.10.14 2011.10.15 |
3 | 9 | S15E22 | 0020 | CRO | DRO |
 |
 |
|
| 11322 | 2011.10.15 | 3 | 5 | S27W78 | 0070 | CSO | HSX |
 |
 |
|
| S1273 | 2011.10.14 | N12W01 | plage | |||||||
| S1276 | 2011.10.15 | 2 | S15W78 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S1277 | 2011.10.15 | S06W41 | plage | |||||||
| 11323 | 2011.10.16 2011.10.17 |
2 | 7 | N23E52 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
formerly region S1278 location: N25E56 |
| 11324 | 2011.10.17 | 2 | 7 | N11E80 | 0090 | HAX | CSO |
 |
||
| S1279 | 2011.10.17 | 2 | S19E54 | 0000 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S1280 | 2011.10.17 | 1 | S15E40 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 55 | 112 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 165 | 232 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Classification adjusted SN: | 103 | 165 | (Sum of total spot count + classification adjustment for each AR. Classification adjustment: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 99 | 77 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.33 for STAR SDO | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008.07 | 65.7 (SF minimum) | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
| 2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
3.25 |
| 2010.07 | 79.8 | 16.1 | 16.7 (+0.3) | 6.31 / 5.15 |
| 2010.08 | 79.2 | 19.6 | 17.4 (+0.7) | 8.49 / 7.77 |
| 2010.09 | 81.1 | 25.2 | 19.6 (+2.2) | 5.33 / 5.45 |
| 2010.10 | 81.6 | 23.5 | 23.2 (+3.6) | 6.07 / 6.27 |
| 2010.11 | 82.5 | 21.5 | 26.5 (+3.3) | 4.80 / 5.50 |
| 2010.12 | 84.2 | 14.4 | 28.8 (+2.3) | 3.41 / 4.35 |
| 2011.01 | 83.6 | 19.1 | 31.0 (+2.2) | 4.32 / 5.51 |
| 2011.02 | 94.6 | 29.4 | 33.4 (+2.4) | 5.41 / 6.44 |
| 2011.03 | 115.0 | 56.2 | 36.9 (+3.5) | 7.79 / 8.18 |
| 2011.04 | 112.6 | 54.4 | (41.1 predicted, +4.2) | 9.71 / 8.83 |
| 2011.05 | 95.8 | 41.6 | (45.2 predicted, +4.1) | 9.18 / 8.94 |
| 2011.06 | 95.8 | 37.0 | (49.2 predicted, +4.0) | 8.96 |
| 2011.07 | 94.2 | 43.9 | (53.1 predicted, +3.9) | 9.14 |
| 2011.08 | 101.7 | 50.6 | (57.2 predicted, +4.1) | 8.16 |
| 2011.09 | 133.8 | 78.0 | (60.3 predicted, +3.1) | 12.80 |
| 2011.10 | 132.0 (1) | 63.7 (2A) / 116.1 (2B) | (61.8 predicted, +1.5) | (7.38) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month
average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the official NGDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
