Last major update issued on August 9, 2012 at 05:30 UTC.
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[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update August 6, 2012)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update August 2, 2012) ]
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[POES auroral activity level since October
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[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on August 8. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 321 and 431 km/s under the influence of weak CME effects.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 133.3 (decreasing 32.1 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 11 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.9). Three hour interval K indices: 52221212 (planetary), 41312311 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 11 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11535 [N19W56] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11537 [N12W29] was quiet and stable.
Region 11538 [S23W35] was quiet and stable.
Region 11539 [S20W15] gained a few spots and was quiet.
Region 11540 [S26W08] decayed slightly and was quiet.
Region 11541 [S17W03] was quiet and stable.
Region 11542 [S14E51] has polarity intermixing and is likely to produce further low level C class flares. A minor M class flare is possible.
Region 11543 [N20E59] displayed little change and remained quiet.
Spotted active regions not numbered or interpreted differently by NOAA/SWPC:
S1842 [N17W43] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S1849 [S10E10] emerged with a few spots.
New region S1850 [S31E07] emerged quickly and has many spots. If the region develops further minor M class flares will become possible.
August 6-8: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A small trans equatorial coronal hole (CH526) was in an Earth facing position on August 7. CH536 nearly closed on August 8 due to coronal expansion following a filament eruption in the suthwest quadrant. A coronal hole (CH527) in the southern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on August 9-10. A coronal hole (CH528) in the northern hemisphere could rotate into an Earth facing position on August 10-11.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on August 9. Quiet to active conditions are possible on August 10-11 (due to effects from CH526) and on August 12-14 (due to effects from CH527 and CH528).
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||29||110||53|
|Sunspot number:||99||220||163||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted penumbral SN:||64||154||97||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||59||77||90||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2012.02||106.5||33.1||(67.4 projected, +1.9)||8.81|
|2012.03||114.7||64.2||(68.1 projected, +0.7)||16.08|
|2012.04||113.0||55.2||(67.5 projected, -0.6)||10.10|
|2012.05||121.5||69.0||(65.8 projected, -1.7)||7.06|
|2012.06||119.6||64.5||(65.0 projected, -0.8)||10.08|
|2012.07||133.9||66.5||(66.0 projected, +1.0)||14.37|
|2012.08||135.5 (1)||30.8 (2A) / 119.3 (2B)||(68.6 projected, +2.6)||(8.88)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.