Last major update issued on August 16, 2012 at 05:00 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on August 15. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 408 and 465 km/s, weakly under the influence of a high speed stream from CH528.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 100.7 (increasing 0.7 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.0). Three hour interval K indices: 20111123 (planetary), 21122322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 4 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11542 [S13W46] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11543 [N22W33] lost the magnetic delta structure. There's still polarity intermixing around the large penumbra, however, the region was mostly quiet.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S1856 [N13E16] decayed slightly and could soon become spotless.
New region S1859 [N17E84] rotated into view with a single spot.
August 13, 15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
August 14: A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery following a C3 event in AR 11543 early in the day. A weak glancing blow is possible on August 17.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH529) in the southern hemisphere will likely become Earth facing on August 15-16.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on August 16. A weak CME impact is possible on August 17 and could cause a few unsettled and active intervals. A high speed stream from CH529 could cause unsettled to active conditions on August 18-19.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||12||25||11|
|Sunspot number:||32||65||41||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted penumbral SN:||22||43||27||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||19||23||23||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2012.02||106.5||33.1||(67.4 projected, +1.9)||8.81|
|2012.03||114.7||64.2||(68.1 projected, +0.7)||16.08|
|2012.04||113.0||55.2||(67.5 projected, -0.6)||10.10|
|2012.05||121.5||69.0||(65.8 projected, -1.7)||7.06|
|2012.06||119.6||64.5||(65.0 projected, -0.8)||10.08|
|2012.07||133.9||66.5||(66.0 projected, +1.0)||13.90|
|2012.08||125.8 (1)||48.6 (2A) / 100.4 (2B)||(68.6 projected, +2.6)||(7.53)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.