Last major update issued on February 10, 2012 at 05:45 UTC.
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Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2117 [November-December 2011] - 2118 [December 2011 - January 2012]
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 9. Solar wind speed ranged between 351 and 434 km/s. A low speed coronal hole stream associated with CH499 was observed arriving at ACE near 12:30 UTC.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 99.2 (decreasing 24.9 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.5). Three hour interval K indices: 21012332 (planetary), 10012221 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 7 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11415 [N11W74] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. Flare:
C1.1 at 09:33 UTC.
New region 11416 [S17E24] emerged in the southeast quadrant on February 8 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. The region developed quickly on February 9 and could produce C flares and maybe even a minor M class flare.
Spotted regions not reported by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1461] reemerged with several spots on February 9. Location at midnight: N07W25
[S1465] rotated into view at the northeast limb on February 9. Location at midnight: N16E74
[S1466] emerged in the northeast quadrant on February 9. Location at midnight: N16E50
[S1467] emerged in the northeast quadrant on February 9. The southernmost spot could be split off into another region. Location at midnight: N29E13
[S1468] emerged in the northwest quadrant on February 9. Location at midnight: N14W11
A large filament eruption in the northeast quadrant was observed late in the day in STEREO and SDO images. This eruption was associated with a CME off the east limb, the CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
February 7-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH499) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on February 6-7. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH500) was Earth facing on February 8-9.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 10-12 due to coronal hole effects.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||13||52||19|
|Sunspot number:||33||122||69||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted penumbral SN:||23||63||30||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||20||55||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.45 (changed from 0.33 on Nov.1, 2011) for STAR SDO 2K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2010.11||82.5||21.5||26.5 (+3.3)||4.80 / 5.50|
|2010.12||84.2||14.4||28.8 (+2.3)||3.41 / 4.35|
|2011.01||83.6||19.1||31.0 (+2.2)||4.32 / 5.51|
|2011.02||94.6||29.4||33.4 (+2.4)||5.41 / 6.44|
|2011.03||115.0||56.2||36.9 (+3.5)||7.79 / 8.18|
|2011.04||112.6||54.4||41.8 (+4.9)||9.71 / 8.83|
|2011.05||95.8||41.6||47.6 (+5.8)||9.18 / 8.94|
|2011.06||95.8||37.0||53.2 (+5.6)||8.96 / 8.06|
|2011.07||94.2||43.9||57.2 (+4.0)||9.14 / 8.16|
|2011.08||101.7||50.6||(60.4 projected, +3.2)||8.16 / 7.26|
|2011.09||133.8||78.0||(63.1 projected, +2.7)||12.80 / 12.27|
|2011.10||137.3||88.0||(65.8 projected, +2.7)||7.52 / 8.28|
|2011.11||153.5||96.7||(69.1 projected, +3.3)||4.58 / 5.55|
|2011.12||141.3||73.0||(73.9 projected, +4.8)||3.32|
|2012.01||132.5||58.3||(79.3 projected, +5.4)||6.59|
|2012.02||106.9 (1)||13.4 (2A) / 43.3 (2B)||(82.4 projected, +3.1)||(7.89)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.