Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on May 2, 2012 at 04:50 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update April 1, 2012)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update April 1, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update April 1, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update April 1, 2012)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated May 1, 2012]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2118 [December 2011 - January 2012] - 2119 [January-February 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on May 1. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 278 and 351 km/s.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 109.9 (increasing 7.8 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.1). Three hour interval K indices: 11211213 (planetary), 00112211 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 11 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11467 [N14W20] was quiet and stable.
Region 11469 [S19W26] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11470 [S16E25] was quiet and stable.
Region 11471 [S22E33] developed a weak magnetic delta structure in the trailing spot section, otherwise there's polarity intermixing both in the leading and trailing parts.
Region 11472 [S27E15] decayed slowly and was quiet.
New region 11473 [S20W37] emerged quickly early in the day. C flares are possible.

Spotted active regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S1611 [S25W22] decayed slowly and quietly.
S1621 [N22E13] was quiet and stable.
New region S1622 [N15E80] rotated into view at the northeast limb.
New region S1623 [S41W20] emerged at a high latitude in the southern hemisphere.
New region S1624 [N13W35] emerged with a tiny spot.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

April 29 - May 1: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
April 28: A filament eruption late in the day may have been associated with a partially Earth directed CME.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH515) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on May 5-6.

The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on May 2-4. There's a chance of effects from a CME observed late on April 28 arriving on May 2. If that happens some active intervals will be likely.

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region	Date numbered detected	Spot count			Location at midnight	Area	Classification		SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay		Comment
		SWPC	STAR SDO				SWPC	STAR	Current	Previous
			2K	1K
11468	2012.04.20 2012.04.24				N11W83						plage
11466	2012.04.21 2012.04.22	4			N10W90	0100	DSO				rotated out of view
11469	2012.04.23 2012.04.24	10	10	6	S21W26	0090	DAO	CRO			location: S19W26 area: 0030
11467	2012.04.24	3	9	2	N12W21	0010	BXO	AXX			location: N14W20
S1611	2012.04.25		14	5	S25W22	0030		CRI
11471	2012.04.27 2012.04.28	9	15	8	S21E34	0310	EHO	EHO			beta-gamma-delta area: 0400
11470	2012.04.27 2012.04.28		4		S15E21	0000		BXO			location: S16E25
S1616	2012.04.27				N04W43						plage
S1617	2012.04.27				N30W54						plage
S1618	2012.04.28				N21E14						plage
11472	2012.04.29	7	11	8	S28E14	0060	DAO	ERO
S1619	2012.04.29				S13W07						plage
S1620	2012.04.29				S34W54						plage
S1621	2012.04.30		1		N22E13	0000		AXX
11473	2012.05.01	6	12	6	S21W38	0040	CAO	DAI			area: 0100 location: S20W37
S1622	2012.05.01		1	1	N15E80	0010		HRX
S1623	2012.05.01		1		S41W20	0000		AXX
S1624	2012.05.01		1		N13W35	0000		AXX
Total spot count:		39	79	36
Sunspot number:		99	189	106	(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted penumbral SN:		69	106	63	(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):		59	66	58	k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 (changed from 0.45 on March 1, 2011) for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.