Last major update issued on November 11, 2012 at 05:55 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 10. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 270 and 381 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 122.2 (decreasing 9.9 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.5). Three hour interval K indices: 00010012 (planetary), 00001221 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B5 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 9 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11608 [S20W03] was quiet and stable.
Region 11609 [S15E18] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 11610 [S23E17] developed further and has minor polarity intermixing. C and minor M class flares are possible.
Region 11611 [N12E40] was quiet and stable.
Region 11612 [N07E49] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S2040 [N14E08] was quiet and stable.
S2042 [S23E73] was quiet and stable.
New region S2043 [N13E83] rotated partly into view. This region could produce further M class flares (an M1.0 event was recorded at 02:33 UTC on November 11).
New region S2044 [S09W43] emerged with a tiny spot.
November 8: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
November 9: A partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption in the southern hemisphere, the CME could reach Earth late on November 12 or on November 13.
November 10: A small CME, possibly with a weak Earth directed component, was observed following a filament eruption near AR 11608 starting at approx. 05h UTC.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH545) was in an Earth facing position on November 10.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 11 and most of November 12. From late on Nov.12 and on Nov.13 there is a chance the CME observed on Nov.9 will arrive and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. The CME could arrive just before a high speed stream from CH545. The CME observed on Nov.10 could arrive on Nov.13 but may not be noticable as it was small and there will likely be more significant disturbances in progress.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||18||79||30|
|Sunspot number:||68||169||110||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||41||104||55||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||41||59||61||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
possible cycle 24 max
|2012.05||121.5||69.0||(61.2 projected, -3.4)||7.06|
|2012.06||119.6||64.5||(58.8 projected, -2.4)||10.08|
|2012.07||133.9||66.5||(58.6 projected, -0.2)||13.90|
|2012.08||115.4||63.1||(60.4 projected, +1.8)||7.96|
|2012.09||122.9||61.5||(61.8 projected, +1.4)||8.07|
|2012.10||123.3||53.3||(61.5 projected, -0.3)||9.97|
|2012.11||102.2 (1)||18.4 (2A) / 55.2 (2B) / 51.6 (2C)||(61.2 projected, -0.3)||(6.86)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.