Last major update issued on November 18, 2012 at 06:40 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
daily)]
[Solar wind and
electron fluence charts (updated
daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update November 1, 2012)] [Cycle
24 progress (last update November 1, 2012) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last
update November 1, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and
24 (last update November 1, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006
(last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update
November 4, 2012)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated October 7, 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated
June 27, 2011]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 17. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 350 and 455 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 135.5 (decreasing 8.9 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.8). Three hour interval K indices: 23222232(planetary), 12122222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B4 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 13 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11610 [S23W83] decayed losing spots and penumbral area as it
rotated to the southwest limb.
Region 11611 [N12W56] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11612 [N08W42] was quiet and stable.
Region 11613 [S24W19] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 11614 [N14W08] lost penumbral area but still has many tiny spots.
Region 11615 [N07W19] was mostly quiet and stable (the region was the
source of a C5.7 flare at 04:07 on Nov.18).
Region 11616 [N18E23] decayed significantly losing spots and penumbral
area.
New region 11618 [N08E52] rotated into view on November 15 and was
numbered by SWPC 2 days later.
New region 11619 [N10E17] emerged on November 15 (was noticed by SWPC 2
days later) and has been developing quickly since then. At least C flares are
possible.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S2053 [S35E06] reemerged with a single trailing polarity spot.
S2055 [S24E02] was quiet and stable.
S2059 [N09E63] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
New region S2060 [S13E49] emerged with a tiny spot.
November 14-16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to occasionally unsettled on November 18-20.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11609 | 2012.11.05 2012.11.06 |
S14W80 | plage | ||||||||
| 11610 | 2012.11.06 2012.11.07 |
2 | 2 | S23W76 | 0060 | CSO | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S23W83 area: 0020
|
|
| 11611 | 2012.11.07 2012.11.08 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N12W57 | 0120 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0180 |
| 11612 | 2012.11.08 | 3 | 6 | 4 | N09W43 | 0030 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0020 |
| 11613 | 2012.11.09 2012.11.11 |
10 | 7 | 4 | S24W19 | 0100 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0190 |
| 11614 | 2012.11.10 2012.11.11 |
31 | 29 | 11 | N15W07 | 0160 | DAI | CRI |
 |
 |
location: N14E07 area: 0040 |
| 11615 | 2012.11.11 | 4 | 8 | 5 | N08W21 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N07W19 |
| S2045 | 2012.11.11 | S15W58 | plage | ||||||||
| S2047 | 2012.11.12 | S09W57 | plage | ||||||||
| 11617 | 2012.11.13 2012.11.16 |
S18W32 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11616 | 2012.11.13 2012.11.14 |
12 | 19 | 10 | N19E23 | 0060 | CSO | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0030 |
| S2051 | 2012.11.14 | S12W02 | plage | ||||||||
| S2052 | 2012.11.14 | N42W09 | plage | ||||||||
| S2053 | 2012.11.14 | 1 | S35E06 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S2055 | 2012.11.14 | 5 | 2 | S24E02 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 11618 | 2012.11.15 2012.11.17 |
1 | 4 | 2 | N09E50 | 0020 | EAI | CRO |
 |
 |
Strange data from SWPC, 1 spot and EAI classification is impossible |
| S2057 | 2012.11.15 | N23W54 | plage | ||||||||
| 11619 | 2012.11.15 2012.11.17 |
9 | 26 | 15 | N10E16 | 0090 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0300 |
| S2059 | 2012.11.16 | 5 | 4 | N09E63 | 0030 | DRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S2060 | 2012.11.17 | 1 | S13E49 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 73 | 114 | 58 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 163 | 244 | 158 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 111 | 144 | 88 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 98 | 85 | 87 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.09 | 133.8 | 78.0 | 59.5 (+0.5) | 12.27 |
| 2011.10 | 137.3 | 88.0 | 59.9 (+0.4) | 8.28 |
| 2011.11 | 153.5 | 96.7 | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2011.12 | 141.3 | 73.0 | 63.4 (+2.3) | 3.78 |
| 2012.01 | 132.5 | 58.3 | 65.5 (+2.1) | 7.15 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) possible cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.03 | 114.7 | 64.3 | 66.8 (-0.1) | 16.08 |
| 2012.04 | 113.0 | 55.2 | 64.6 (-2.2) | 10.10 |
| 2012.05 | 121.5 | 69.0 | (61.2 projected, -3.4) | 7.06 |
| 2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | (58.8 projected, -2.4) | 10.08 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | (58.6 projected, -0.2) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.1 | (60.4 projected, +1.8) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.5 | (61.8 projected, +1.4) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | (61.5 projected, -0.3) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 117.8 (1) | 50.5 (2A) / 89.2 (2B) / 56.1 (2C) | (61.2 projected, -0.3) | (9.29) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
