Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on October 13, 2012 at 03:35 UTC. The update on October 14 will be after noon.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update October 3, 2012)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update October 1, 2012) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update October 3, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update October 3, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update October 1, 2012)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated October 7, 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on October 12. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 450 and 614 km/s, most of the day under the influence of a high speed stream from CH539. Another disturbance arrived during the latter half of the day with the total field of the IMF increasing after 18h UTC as a magnetic cloud began passing by ACE. The Bz component of the IMF has swung weakly to moderately southwards and this will likely cause unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions with a chance of minor storm intervals.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 121.9 (increasing 24.4 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 17 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 17.0). Three hour interval K indices: 44333332 (planetary), 34322331 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 9 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11585 [S18W68] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11586 [S12W02] was quiet and stable.
Region 11589 [N13E37] developed a magnetic delta structure as several central northern and southern spots merged into one penumbra. M flares are possible. The region produced most of the flares recorded during the day with the largest being a C9.0 event at 08:20 UTC.
Region 11590 [S30E45] was quiet and stable.
New region 11591 [N07E72] rotated into view on October 11 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
New region S1978 [N24E48] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S1979 [S24E08] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S1980 [N13E07] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S1981 [N07W43] emerged with a tiny spot.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH539) was in an Earth facing position on October 9-11. A  northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH541) could become Earth facing on October 13.

Coronal hole map

The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.


Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.


The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on October 13-15, mainly due to a high speed stream from CH539. A high speed stream from CH541 could produce a few unsettled and active intervals on October 16-17.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
2K 1K
11585 2012.10.01
6 3 1 S18W68 0090 CSO HRX area: 0020
11586 2012.10.06
1 3 2 S12W01 0080 HSX CSO  
S1965 2012.10.06       S23W44           plage
S1967 2012.10.08       N14W14           plage
11589 2012.10.09 29 48 20 N13E34 0280 DKC DKC beta-gamma-delta

location: N13E37

11590 2012.10.10
1 1 1 S29E46 0020 HAX HAX  
S1974 2012.10.10       S09W30           plage
11591 2012.10.11
2 3 3 N07E72 0200 DSO HSX  
S1977 2012.10.11       S15E21         plage
S1978 2012.10.12   1   N24E48 0000   AXX    
S1979 2012.10.12   1   S24E08 0000   AXX    
S1980 2012.10.12   1   N13E07 0000   AXX    
S1981 2012.10.12   1   N07W43 0000   AXX    
Total spot count: 39 62 27  
Sunspot number: 89 152 77  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 69 90 55  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 53 53 42 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
2011.08 101.7 50.6 59.0 (+1.8) 7.26
2011.09 133.8 78.0 59.5 (+0.5) 12.27
2011.10 137.3 88.0 59.9 (+0.4) 8.28
2011.11 153.5 96.7 61.1 (+1.2) 5.55
2011.12 141.3 73.0 63.4 (+2.3) 3.78
2012.01 132.5 58.3 65.5 (+2.1) 7.15
2012.02 106.5 32.9 66.9 (+1.4)
possible cycle 24 max
2012.03 114.7 64.3 66.8 (-0.1) 16.08
2012.04 113.0 55.2 (64.7 projected, -2.1) 10.10
2012.05 121.5 69.0 (61.8 projected, -2.9) 7.06
2012.06 119.6 64.5 (59.9 projected, -1.9) 10.08
2012.07 133.9 66.5 (60.0 projected, +0.1) 13.90
2012.08 115.4 63.1 (62.0 projected, +2.0) 7.96
2012.09 122.9 61.5 (63.6 projected, +1.6) 8.07
2012.10 110.9 (1) 23.2 (2A) / 59.8 (2B) / 52.1 (2C) (63.5 projected, -0.1) (16.33)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.