Last major update issued on September 2, 2012 at 06:45 UTC.
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[POES auroral activity level since October
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[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on September 1. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 275 and 329 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 145.6 (increasing 11.6 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.8). Three hour interval K indices: 22321112 (planetary), 12332322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 11 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11553 [S21W54] decayed slightly but may still have minor M
class flaring potential.
Region 11555 [N08W25] was quiet and stable.
Region 11558 [N16E06] was quiet and stable.
Region 11560 [N03W05] developed further with a magnetic delta structure forming in the trailing spot section. A major flare is possible. The region was the source of a long duration C2.8 event peaking before 04h UTC on September 2. This event was associated with a CME which could be aimed at Earth given the center disk location of the source. STEREO-A displays a CME, however, LASCO imagery may change the evaluation of the importance of the CME.
Region 11561 [S12W11] was quiet and stable.
Region 11562 [S17E26] was quiet and stable.
Region 11563 [S26E43] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 11564 [S15E57] developed slowly and has minor M class flare potential.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S1890 [S19E07] added a few tiny spots.
S1893 [S12W68] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S1894 [S02E16] emerged with two spots.
August 30 and September 1: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
August 31: A large and bright full halo CME was observed following a filament eruption in the southeast quadrant. This CME could reach Earth during the latter half of September 3.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A small trans equatorial coronal hole could rotate into an Earth facing position on September 3.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on September 2. A CME could reach Earth on September 3 and cause active to major storm conditions that day and on September 4. The CME observed early on September 2 could reach Earth on September 5 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
rotated out of view
|N17E10||originally AR 11558|
|Total spot count:||50||122||65|
|Sunspot number:||120||232||165||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||85||148||91||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||72||81||91||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2012.03||114.7||64.3||(67.3 projected, +0.4)||16.08|
|2012.04||113.0||55.2||(66.5 projected, -0.8)||10.10|
|2012.05||121.5||69.0||(64.4 projected, -2.1)||7.06|
|2012.06||119.6||64.5||(63.6 projected, -0.8)||10.08|
|2012.07||133.9||66.5||(64.6 projected, +1.0)||13.90|
|2012.08||115.4||63.1||(67.2 projected, +2.6)||7.53|
|2012.09||145.6 (1)||3.9 (2A)/ 120.0 (2B)||(70.0 projected, +2.8)||(6.75)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.