Last major update issued on August 16, 2013 at 05:00 UTC.
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[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on August 15. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 437 and 572 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH579.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 122.7 (increasing 9.1 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.8). Three hour interval K indices: 32233423 (planetary), 43233423 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B4 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 11 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11817 [S22W31] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 11818 [S07W07] redeveloped a magnetic delta structure in the northern part of the largest penumbra. C and M class flares are possible.
Region 11819 [S17W20] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11820 [S13E34] was quiet and stable.
Region 11821 [N01W36] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11822 [S09E58] was split off from AR S2601.
New region 11823 [S08E71] rotated into view on August 14 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2601 [S07E48] was quiet and stable.
S2602 [N25E28] reemerged with penumbra spots.
New region S2606 [N14W13] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S2607 [N02W55] emerged with a penumbra spot.
August 13-15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH579) in the northern hemisphere rotated across the central meridian on August 11-15. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH580) will rotate into an Earth facing position on August 18.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on August 16-17 and quiet to unsettled on August 18-19 due to effects from CH579. Quiet conditions are likely on August 20 becoming quiet to active on August 21-22 as a high speed stream from CH580 becomes geoeffective.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||59||103||41|
|Sunspot number:||129||213||121||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||97||132||70||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||77||75||67||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2011.11||153.5 (cycle peak)||96.7 (cycle peak)||61.1 (+1.2)||5.55|
likely cycle 24 max
|2013.02||104.3||38.0||(57.8 projected, -0.9)||6.11|
|2013.03||111.3||57.9||(57.3 projected, -0.5)||10.56|
|2013.04||124.8||72.4||(57.3 projected, 0.0)||5.40|
|2013.05||131.4||78.7||(57.3 projected, 0.0)||9.73|
|2013.06||110.1||52.5||(57.6 projected, +0.3)||12.60|
|2013.07||115.5||57.0||(57.7 projected, +0.1)||9.47|
|2013.08||110.4 (1)||42.6 (2A) / 88.1 (2B) / 53.2 (2C)||(57.6 projected, -0.1)||(6.76)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.