Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on August 25, 2013 at 05:25 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update August 1, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update August 1, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update August 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update August 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update August 4, 2013)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated August 20, 2013]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on August 24. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 349 and 487 km/s.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 117.4 (increasing 8.0 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.8). Three hour interval K indices: 21212121 (planetary), 22333231 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux was at the class B3 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 15 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11820 [S13W81] was quiet as it rotated to the southwest limb.
Region 11823 [S07W49] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11827 [S20W07] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11828 [N15E03] was quiet and stable.
Region 11830 [S05W81] was quiet and stable.
Region 11831 [N13W76] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11833 [N20W07] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11834 [N13E69] rotated into view on August 23 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.
New region 11835 [S10E80] rotated into view with a large spot.

Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2611 [S10W12] was quiet and stable.
S2623 [S20W26] was quiet and stable.
S2628 [S05W74] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S2633 [S10E70] emerged with penumbra spots ahead of AR 11835.
New region S2634 [N02E06] emerged with one spot.
New region S2635 [N02E02] emerged with a penumbra spot.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

August 22-24: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH581) was in an Earth facing position on August 22. A coronal hole (CH582) in the northern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on August 27.

Coronal hole map

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on August 25-26 with a chance of active intervals due to effects from CH581. Quiet conditions are likely on August 27-29. On August 30-31 quiet to unsettled conditions are likely as a high speed stream from CH582 becomes geoeffective.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
11820 2013.08.11
2013.08.13
1 1 1 S13W83 0040 HSX HSX  
11823 2013.08.14
2013.08.15
1 2 1 S07W49 0090 HSX HSX

area: 0160

11822 2013.08.15       S11W70           plage
11827 2013.08.17
2013.08.18
4 6 1 S18W06 0010 BXO BXO  
S2611 2013.08.17   3   S10W12 0005   BXO  
11826 2013.08.17
2013.08.18
      N13W69           plage, SWPC/USAF moved this region to the location of AR S2617

real location: N08W61

11828 2013.08.18
2013.08.19
3 17 8 N15W00 0020 HRX CRO area: 0035

location: N15E03

S2621 2013.08.19       N20W03           plage
S2623 2013.08.20   3   S20W26 0005   BXO  
11831 2013.08.20
2013.08.21
3 8 3 N13W77 0080 CAO DRO area: 0040
11832 2013.08.20
2013.08.21
      N25W76         plage
11830 2013.08.21 5 3   S05W78 0070 CAO HSX location: S05W81
11833 2013.08.22
2013.08.23
  1   N18W07 0002   AXX  
S2628 2013.08.22   1 1 S05W74 0005   AXX  
S2629 2013.08.23       N07E38         plage
S2630 2013.08.23       N07W03         plage
11834 2013.08.23
2013.08.24
3 5 1 N14E71 0010 BXO BXO  
S2632 2013.08.23       S18W44         plage
11835 2013.08.24 1 1 1 S09E80 0030 HSX HHX   area: 0330
S2633 2013.08.24   2   S10E70 0001   BXO    
S2634 2013.08.24   1 1 N02E06 0007   HRX    
S2635 2013.08.24   1   N02E02 0001   AXX    
Total spot count: 21 55 18  
Sunspot number: 101 205 108  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 49 89 52  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 61 72 59 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2011.11 153.5 (cycle peak) 96.7 (cycle peak) 61.1 (+1.2) 5.55
2012.02 106.5 32.9 66.9 (+1.4)
likely cycle 24 max
8.81
2012.05 121.5 69.0 61.7 (-2.9) 7.06
2012.06 119.6 64.5 58.9 (-2.8) 10.08
2012.07 133.9 66.5 57.8 (-1.1) 13.90
2012.08 115.4 63.0 58.2 (+0.4) 7.96
2012.09 122.9 61.4 58.1 (-0.1) 8.07
2012.10 123.3 53.3 58.6 (+0.5) 9.97
2012.11 121.3 61.8 59.7 (+1.1) 7.08
2012.12 108.6 40.8 59.6 (-0.1) 3.44
2013.01 127.1 62.9 58.7 (-0.9) 4.69
2013.02 104.3 38.0 (57.8 projected, -0.9) 6.11
2013.03 111.3 57.9 (57.3 projected, -0.5) 10.56
2013.04 124.8 72.4 (57.3 projected, 0.0) 5.40
2013.05 131.4 78.7 (57.3 projected, 0.0) 9.73
2013.06 110.1 52.5 (57.6 projected, +0.3) 12.60
2013.07 115.5 57.0 (57.7 projected, +0.1) 9.47
2013.08 116.2 (1) 78.5 (2A) / 101.4 (2B) / 62.8 (2C) (57.6 projected, -0.1) (7.90)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.