Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on February 10, 2013 at 07:10 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update February 1, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update February 2, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update February 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update February 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update February 3, 2013)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated February 3, 2013]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on February 9. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 350 and 447 km/s, slowly decreasing most of the day.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 107.6 (decreasing 48.4 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.4). Three hour interval K indices: 22110011 (planetary), 22111111 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux was at the class B2 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 7 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11665 [N13W82] was quiet and stable.
Region 11667 [N22W37] was quiet and stable.
Region 11669 [N07E05] gained penumbra spots.
Region 11670 [N18E15] appears to be maturing. A filament eruption near the northern boundary of the region was recorded as a long duration C2.4 event peaking at 06:40 UTC. STEREO imagery indicate that the associated CME could have a weak Earth directed component.

Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2212 [N17W17] was quiet and stable.
S2213 [N24E20] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S2216 [S18E34] emerged with a penumbra spot.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

February 7-8: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
February 9: The CME associated with a C2.4 LDE near AR 11670 could have Earth directed components.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

No obvious coronal holes are currently near Earth facing positions.

Coronal hole map

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on February 10-11. On February 12 the CME observed on Feb.9 could reach Earth and cause a few unsettled and active intervals.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
11665 2013.01.28
2013.01.29
1 1 1 N11W81 0080 HSX HSX area: 0180

location: N13W82

11667 2013.01.31
2013.02.01
2 4 1 N23W37 0070 CSO CSO

area: 0110

S2208 2013.02.01       S20W55         plage
11669 2013.02.04
2013.02.05
  16 4 N07W02 0027   BXO

location: N07E05

11670 2013.02.05
2013.02.07
25 28 15 N19W01 0150 DSI DAI area: 0300
S2212 2013.02.06   2   N17W17 0004   BXO  
S2213 2013.02.08   2   N24E20 0004   BXO  
S2214 2013.02.08       S17W75         plage
S2215 2013.02.08       S27W25         plage
S2216 2013.02.09   1   S18W34 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 28 54 21  
Sunspot number: 58 124 61  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 43 69 36  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 35 43 34 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2011.10 137.3 88.0 59.9 (+0.4) 8.28
2011.11 153.5 (cycle max) 96.7 (cycle max) 61.1 (+1.2) 5.55
2011.12 141.3 73.0 63.4 (+2.3) 3.78
2012.01 132.5 58.3 65.5 (+2.1) 7.15
2012.02 106.5 32.9 66.9 (+1.4)
possible cycle 24 max
8.81
2012.03 114.7 64.3 66.8 (-0.1) 16.08
2012.04 113.0 55.2 64.6 (-2.2) 10.10
2012.05 121.5 69.0 61.7 (-2.9) 7.06
2012.06 119.6 64.5 58.9 (-2.8) 10.08
2012.07 133.9 66.5 57.7 (-1.2) 13.90
2012.08 115.4 63.0 (58.6 projected, +0.9) 7.96
2012.09 122.9 61.4 (58.7 projected, +0.1) 8.07
2012.10 123.3 53.3 (58.1 projected, -0.6) 9.97
2012.11 121.3 61.4 (57.4 projected, -0.7) 7.08
2012.12 108.6 40.8 (56.7 projected, -0.7) 3.44
2013.01 127.1 62.9 (56.0 projected, -0.7) 4.49
2013.02 106.3 (1) 17.2 (2A) / 53.4 (2B) / 46.1 (2C) (55.0 projected, -1.0) (4.50)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.