Last major update issued on February 19, 2013 at 04:25 UTC.
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[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last
update February 1, 2013)]
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February 3, 2013]
[Presentation
3rd
SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 18. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 287 and 345 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 104.7 (decreasing 5.6 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.4). Three hour interval K indices: 00000013 (planetary), 10011113 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B2 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 9 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11671 [N14W33] was quiet and stable.
Region 11673 [S10E32] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 11675 [N12E04] decayed significantly losing many spots and is no
longer magnetically complex.
Region 11676 [S18E53] was quiet and stable.
Region 11677 [S27E53] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11678 [N10W27] began to emerge on February 17 and was split
off from AR 11671 early on Feb.18. The region has developed quickly initially.
Further development will increase the chance of C flares, a minor M class flare
is possible as well. Quick development is continuing early on Feb.19 and the
region has already become the largest on the visible disk.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2238 [S02W45] reemerged with a single spot.
S2241 [S13E59] was quiet and stable.
S2244 [N13W69] decayed slowly and quietly.
February 16-18: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A narrow trans equatorial coronal hole (CH555) - an extension of a southern hemisphere coronal hole - rotated across the central meridian on February 15-16.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 19 and quiet on February 20-21.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11672 | 2013.02.10 2013.02.11 |
S17W57 | plage | ||||||||
| 11671 | 2013.02.10 2013.02.11 |
1 | 5 | 3 | N14W35 | 0110 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0150 |
| S2222 | 2013.02.11 | N30W27 | plage | ||||||||
| S2228 | 2013.02.12 | S07W39 | plage | ||||||||
| 11673 | 2013.02.14 2013.02.15 |
8 | 35 | 18 | S09E31 | 0060 | CAO | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0180 |
| 11674 | 2013.02.14 2013.02.15 |
N14W45 | plage | ||||||||
| 11675 | 2013.02.15 2013.02.16 |
14 | 16 | 9 | N13E04 | 0110 | CAO | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0160 |
| S2236 | 2013.02.15 | N05W13 | plage | ||||||||
| S2238 | 2013.02.15 | 1 | 1 | S02W48 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| 11676 | 2013.02.16 | 2 | 5 | 2 | S17E50 | 0080 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: S18E53 |
| S2239 | 2013.02.16 | S44W23 | plage | ||||||||
| 11677 | 2013.02.16 2013.02.17 |
1 | 3 | 1 | S26E52 | 0010 | AXX | AXX |
 |
 |
|
| S2241 | 2013.02.17 | 2 | 1 | S13E59 | 0025 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| S2242 | 2013.02.17 | N18E39 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2243 | 2013.02.17 | S19W34 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2244 | 2013.02.17 | 1 | N13W69 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S2245 | 2013.02.17 | S29W23 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11678 | 2013.02.18 | 6 | 23 | 12 | N10W26 | 0030 | DRO | DAI |
 |
||
| Total spot count: | 32 | 91 | 47 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 92 | 181 | 127 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 55 | 119 | 75 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 55 | 63 | 70 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.10 | 137.3 | 88.0 | 59.9 (+0.4) | 8.28 |
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle max) | 96.7 (cycle max) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2011.12 | 141.3 | 73.0 | 63.4 (+2.3) | 3.78 |
| 2012.01 | 132.5 | 58.3 | 65.5 (+2.1) | 7.15 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) possible cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.03 | 114.7 | 64.3 | 66.8 (-0.1) | 16.08 |
| 2012.04 | 113.0 | 55.2 | 64.6 (-2.2) | 10.10 |
| 2012.05 | 121.5 | 69.0 | 61.7 (-2.9) | 7.06 |
| 2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | 58.9 (-2.8) | 10.08 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | 57.7 (-1.2) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.0 | (58.6 projected, +0.9) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.4 | (58.7 projected, +0.1) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | (58.1 projected, -0.6) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.4 | (57.4 projected, -0.7) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | (56.7 projected, -0.7) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | (56.0 projected, -0.7) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.6 (1) | 35.4 (2A) / 55.1 (2B) / 41.3 (2C) | (55.0 projected, -1.0) | (5.36) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
