Last major update issued on July 4, 2013 at 06:35 UTC. Irregular updates are likely until July 12.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
daily)]
[Solar wind and
electron fluence charts (updated
daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update July 1, 2013)] [Cycle
24 progress (last update July 1, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last
update July 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and
24 (last update July 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006
(last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update
July 1, 2013)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated
June 30, 2013]
[Presentation
3rd
SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on July 3. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 341 and 412 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 124.5 (increasing 15.5 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.5). Three hour interval K indices: 10010112 (planetary), 10111212 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B7 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 12 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11781 [N23W69] decayed further and was quiet.
Region 11782 [S13W17] reemerged with a penumbra spot.
Region 11784 [S16E06] was quiet and stable.
Region 11785 [S10E53] developed further and still has a magnetic delta structure at the
northern end of the the main penumbra. M and X class flares are
possible. C5+ flares: C6.0 at 20:04 UTC.
Region 11786 [S30E04] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11787 [S15E70] rotated into view on July 2 and got its NOAA
number the next day. The region has a magnetic delta structure in the largest
penumbra and could produce another M class flare. C5+ flares:
M1.5 at 07:08 UTC.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2502 [S08W72] reemerged with a few spots.
S2520 [S15E45] developed slowly and quietly. USAF/SWPC is, for reasons
unknown, including this in AR 11785.
S2523 [S23E50] was quiet and stable.
S2529 [N20W18] was quiet and stable.
New region S2530 [N00W36] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S2531 [S16W05] emerged with penumbra spots.
July 1-3: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on July 4-6.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11778 | 2013.06.22 | S18W70 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2498 | 2013.06.22 | N15W57 | plage | ||||||||
| S2502 | 2013.06.24 | 3 | 2 | S08W72 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| 11779 | 2013.06.24 2013.06.25 |
N17W56 | plage | ||||||||
| 11780 | 2013.06.25 2013.06.26 |
1 | S13W89 | 0010 | HRX |
 |
rotated out of view |
||||
| S2508 | 2013.06.26 | N03W57 | plage | ||||||||
| 11782 | 2013.06.27 2013.06.28 |
1 | S15W23 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S2510 | 2013.06.27 | S11W35 | plage | ||||||||
| 11781 | 2013.06.27 2013.06.28 |
5 | 8 | 1 | N21W69 | 0030 | DSO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N23W69 |
| S2514 | 2013.06.28 | S36W58 | plage | ||||||||
| 11783 | 2013.06.29 2013.06.30 |
N07E18 |
 |
plage |
|||||||
| 11784 | 2013.06.30 2013.07.01 |
4 | 20 | 8 | S15E06 | 0020 | CSO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0060 |
| S2517 | 2013.06.30 | N12W42 | plage | ||||||||
| 11785 | 2013.07.01 | 20 | 44 | 25 | S11E49 | 0570 | FKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 1000 location: S10E53 |
| 11786 | 2013.07.01 2013.07.02 |
1 | 2 | S31E03 | 0010 | HSX | AXX |
 |
 |
area: 0004 location: S30E04 |
|
| S2519 | 2013.07.01 | S17E18 | plage | ||||||||
| S2520 | 2013.07.01 | 14 | 5 | S15E45 | 0040 | DRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S2521 | 2013.07.01 | N12E04 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2522 | 2013.07.01 | S21W05 | plage | ||||||||
| S2523 | 2013.07.02 | 1 | S23E50 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 11787 | 2013.07.02 2013.07.03 |
3 | 18 | 11 | S14E70 | 0060 | DSO | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0160 |
| S2525 | 2013.07.02 | N10E34 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2526 | 2013.07.02 | N09E55 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2527 | 2013.07.02 | S04W55 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2528 | 2013.07.02 | S02W65 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2529 | 2013.07.02 | 2 | N20W18 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S2530 | 2013.07.03 | 1 | N00W36 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S2531 | 2013.07.03 | 2 | S16W05 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 34 | 116 | 52 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 94 | 236 | 112 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 67 | 140 | 76 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 56 | 83 | 62 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle peak) | 96.7 (cycle peak) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) possible cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.04 | 113.0 | 55.2 | 64.6 (-2.2) | 10.10 |
| 2012.05 | 121.5 | 69.0 | 61.7 (-2.9) | 7.06 |
| 2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | 58.9 (-2.8) | 10.08 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | 57.7 (-1.2) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.0 | 58.1 (+0.4) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.4 | 58.1 (-0.0) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | 58.6 (+0.5) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | (58.7 projected, -0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | (58.3 projected, -0.4) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 57.9 | (57.9 projected, -0.4) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 72.4 | (57.5 projected, -0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 78.7 | (57.6 projected, +0.1) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 52.5 | (57.9 projected, +0.3) | 12.06 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 (1) | 9.6 (2A) / 99.0 (2B) / 52.5 (2C) | (58.0 projected, +0.1) | (4.21) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
